Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T23:05:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
E1 0xe176…91a1 sports 5 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable
Total PnL +$106 (+42%) realized +$106 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +66% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +44% what you keep after slip
Net edge+44%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate67%2W / 1L
Drawdown16%max
Avg bet$51per market
Trades / day8.0pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$100now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 80% +$24
other 20% +$77
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)+50.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +66.2% +50.4% 67% 67% +50.4%
≤30d 3 +66.2% +50.4% 67% 67% +50.4%
≤90d 3 +66.2% +50.4% 67% 67% +50.4%
all 3 +66.2% +50.4% 67% 67% +50.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +50.4% 67% +50.4%
10% +36.0% 67% +36.0%
15% +22.9% 67% +22.8%
20% +10.8% 67% +10.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 66% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +66% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +66% · $-wt +66% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$58 vs −$16 · ×3.71 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×7.42 per $1 lost it wins $7.42
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$100
Realized+$106
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses2 / 1
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions2
Markets (closed)3 / 5
History coverage1d
Avg bet$51
Trades / day8.0
Drawdown16%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Haiti 43¢ 66¢ $50 $77 +$27 (+55%)
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 2.5 Under 47¢ 22¢ $50 $23 −$27 (-54%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $51 +$77 +152%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 Jun 24 $51 +$40 +78%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 24 $51 −$16 -31%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Haiti 43¢ $51 1h
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 47¢ $51 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $128 1h
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 66¢ $91 2h
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? SELL Yes 25¢ $35 2h
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $51 4h
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 36¢ $51 4h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 39¢ $51 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $100.20 · official $100.20 (match) · 8 history records