Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T20:28:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0

score

E1 0xe176…59bf other 28 markets active 0h ago coverage 28d

TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL +$882 (+28%) realized +$906 · open −$24

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip

Net edge-2%after slip

Net WR58%break-even

Win rate58%15W / 11L

Drawdown19%max

Avg bet$112per market

Trades / day1.4pace

Fees−$3est.

Kalshi-fit25%portable

Net worth$402now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$612

7 days+$953

14 days+$824

30 days+$824

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +58%

net ROI/market (all)-1.5%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	22	+19.0%	+7.7%	64%	64%	+26.5%
≤30d	26	+8.9%	-1.5%	58%	58%	+18.0%
≤90d	26	+8.9%	-1.5%	58%	58%	+18.0%
all	26	+8.9%	-1.5%	58%	58%	+18.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover1.4 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-1.5%	58%	+18.0%
10%	-10.9%	58%	+6.7%
15%	-19.5%	50%	-3.6%
20%	-27.4%	42%	-13.1%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 16% · top 2 30% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +30% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +9% · $-wt +30% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -3% → late +21% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$84 vs −$40 · ×2.1 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×2.87 per $1 lost it wins $2.87

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

28d coverage

Net worth$402

Realized+$906

Unrealized−$24

Win rate (resolved)58%

Wins / losses15 / 11

Est. fees paid−$3

Open positions2

Markets (closed)26 / 28

History coverage28d

Avg bet$112

Trades / day1.4

Drawdown19%

Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 26 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	Yes	64¢	60¢	$346	$320	−$26 (-7%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	Yes	65¢	66¢	$80	$82	+$2 (+2%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$102	+$71	+69%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$293	+$180	+61%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$284	+$205	+72%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 19	$102	+$105	+103%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 19	$82	−$82	-100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 19	$237	+$133	+56%
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 18	$51	+$35	+69%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$98	+$61	+62%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw?	Jun 17	$21	−$2	-11%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$98	+$39	+40%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 17	$61	−$61	-100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$264	+$124	+47%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5	Jun 16	$20	−$20	-100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5	Jun 16	$20	−$20	-100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 15	$279	+$86	+31%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 15	$77	−$45	-59%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw?	Jun 14	$10	+$27	+258%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$20	−$20	-100%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Jun 14	$92	+$51	+56%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 14	$106	+$59	+55%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 14	$27	−$27	-100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	Jun 14	$51	+$55	+108%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 12	$10	−$1	-12%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-07?	Jun 09	$153	−$153	-100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-08?	Jun 09	$146	+$35	+24%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-24?	Jun 07	$9	−$9	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	64¢	$249	22m
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	65¢	$81	1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	65¢	$102	14h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	58¢	$102	14h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	57¢	$284	33h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	61¢	$293	41h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	SELL Yes	100¢	$207	41h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	63¢	$237	2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	53¢	$82	2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	48¢	$102	3d
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	58¢	$51	3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	SELL Yes	76¢	$75	3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	BUY No	24¢	$21	3d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw?	SELL Yes	16¢	$18	3d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw?	BUY Yes	17¢	$21	3d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	SELL Yes	100¢	$138	3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	76¢	$77	3d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	70¢	$98	3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	67¢	$264	4d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	75¢	$20	5d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5	BUY Over	52¢	$20	5d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	66¢	$61	5d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	SELL Yes	100¢	$365	5d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	75¢	$279	5d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14?	SELL Yes	13¢	$31	5d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw?	SELL Yes	100¢	$37	5d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	30¢	$77	6d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14?	BUY No	45¢	$20	6d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?	SELL Yes	100¢	$143	6d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	SELL Yes	100¢	$165	6d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $401.64 · official $439.26 · 59 history records