Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T12:42:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
E1 0xe177…7be1 other 108 markets active 1h ago coverage 127d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$68 (+0%) realized +$68 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate11%12W / 96L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown40%max
Avg bet$250per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 54% −$15
politics 20% −$6
sports 10% +$92
economics 5% −$1
crypto 5% −$1
tech 3% −$1
world 2% −$1
culture 1% $0
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-6.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 6 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 73 -0.1% -9.6% 5% 0% -9.6%
all 108 +3.6% -6.2% 11% 7% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.2% 7% -9.3%
10% -15.2% 7% -18.0%
15% -23.4% 6% -25.9%
20% -30.9% 5% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +7% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$1 · ×14.7 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.9 per $1 lost it wins $1.9
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

127d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$68
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses12 / 96
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)108 / 108
History coverage127d
Avg bet$250
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown40%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 108 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 21 $217 $0 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 19 $23 $0 -0%
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 17 $18 $0 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 08 $31 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 02 $149 $0 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 25 $172 $0 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 19 $194 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 18 $173 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April? May 09 $22 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in April? May 09 $30 $0 +0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 19 $205 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $567 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $190 $0 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $232 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $234 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 18 $226 $0 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 17 $929 −$1 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 17 $190 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 17 $445 $0 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? Apr 17 $248 $0 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 16 $669 −$1 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $186 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $183 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 15 $66 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 15 $992 −$1 -0%
Will Juan Daniel Oviedo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Apr 15 $211 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e Apr 14 $462 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 13 $237 $0 -0%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 13 $201 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 12 $210 $0 -0%
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 12 $261 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 12 $483 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,800 in April? Apr 12 $221 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 11 $230 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? Apr 10 $194 $0 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 10 $239 $0 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? Apr 08 $263 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 08 $224 $0 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 08 $188 $0 -0%
Will Montenegro win Eurovision 2026? Apr 07 $188 $0 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 07 $255 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 07 $243 $0 -0%
Will Scott Bessent be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 06 $494 −$1 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? Apr 06 $703 −$1 -0%
Will Na Kyung-won win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 06 $190 $0 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 05 $241 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 05 $249 $0 -0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 04 $188 $0 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 04 $475 $0 -0%
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 04 $246 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $33 1h
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $33 36h
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $23 2d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $23 3d
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $18 3d
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $18 12d
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $31 12d
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $31 15d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $149 18d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $149 26d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $172 26d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $172 30d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $194 33d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $194 33d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $173 33d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $173 36d
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $22 52d
Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in April? BUY No 100¢ $30 53d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $205 63d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $205 63d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $201 63d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $201 63d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $190 63d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $190 63d
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $232 63d
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $232 63d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $234 63d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $234 64d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $226 64d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $226 64d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 323 history records