Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T14:45:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E1 0xe17a…a347 crypto 277 markets active 0h ago coverage 6d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 5d only
✗ bot/MM pace (586 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,585 (+34%) realized +$1,585 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate50%139W / 138L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day586.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (586 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-4.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 277 +5.7% -4.4% 50% 47% -9.8%
≤30d 277 +5.7% -4.4% 50% 47% -9.8%
≤90d 277 +5.7% -4.4% 50% 47% -9.8%
all 277 +5.7% -4.4% 50% 47% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover586.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -4.4% 47% -9.8%
10% ← realistic here -13.5% 44% -18.5%
15% -21.9% 42% -26.3%
20% -29.5% 5% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late +7% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
9.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$7 · ×0.98 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,585
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses139 / 138
Open positions0
Markets (closed)277 / 277
History coverage6d ⚠
Avg bet$17
Trades / day586.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 277 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 16 $20 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 16 $20 +$8 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 16 $7 +$3 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 16 $20 +$8 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 16 $20 −$14 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 16 $14 +$10 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 16 $20 −$12 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 16 $20 −$7 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 16 $20 −$5 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 16 $20 +$8 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 16 $20 +$8 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 16 $20 +$8 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 16 $20 −$3 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 16 $20 −$9 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 16 $20 −$15 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 16 $20 −$14 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 16 $20 −$11 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 16 $20 −$15 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 16 $20 −$4 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 16 $20 +$8 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 16 $20 +$8 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 16 $20 −$5 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 16 $20 +$8 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 16 $20 +$8 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 16 $20 +$8 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 16 $20 −$9 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 16 $20 +$8 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 16 $20 −$7 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 16 $20 +$8 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 16 $20 −$17 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 16 $20 −$7 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 16 $20 −$12 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 16 $20 +$8 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 16 $20 −$6 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 16 $20 −$9 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 16 $20 −$15 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 16 $20 +$8 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 16 $20 +$3 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 16 $20 −$3 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 16 $20 −$9 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 16 $20 +$8 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 16 $20 +$8 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 16 $20 +$7 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 16 $14 +$6 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 16 $6 +$3 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 15 $20 +$7 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 15 $20 +$8 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 15 $20 +$7 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 15 $20 +$8 +41%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET SELL Up 12¢ $19 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $0 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $1 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $1 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $0 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $1 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $0 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $0 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $1 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $1 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $1 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $2 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $0 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $1 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $1 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $1 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $1 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $6 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $0 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $1 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $1 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $1 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET SELL Down 17¢ $0 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET SELL Down 17¢ $18 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET SELL Down 17¢ $2 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET SELL Down 17¢ $3 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET SELL Down 17¢ $3 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET SELL Down 17¢ $1 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET SELL Down 17¢ $1 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 12¢ $1 43m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records