Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T04:38:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
E1 0xe17c…7e95 sports 95 markets active 1h ago coverage 429d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$101 (-6%) realized −$100 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate57%52W / 39L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$63now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$44
7 days+$86
14 days+$37
30 days+$42
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 57% −$101
other 42% +$25
world 1% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-5.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +24.0% +12.2% 62% 62% +14.3%
≤30d 31 +19.5% +8.1% 52% 52% -3.8%
≤90d 84 +7.2% -3.0% 58% 57% -12.4%
all 91 +4.9% -5.1% 57% 56% -13.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.1% 56% -13.5%
10% -14.2% 53% -21.8%
15% -22.5% 46% -29.3%
20% -30.1% 35% -36.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$13 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

429d coverage
Net worth$63
Realized−$100
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses52 / 39
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions4
Markets (closed)91 / 95
History coverage429d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 91 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $19 $19 −$0 (-2%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 65¢ 64¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Yes 60¢ 60¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 66¢ 64¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $30 +$18 +60%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $30 +$17 +55%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $26 −$15 -58%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $15 +$8 +55%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $5 +$7 +146%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $20 +$12 +58%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $15 −$4 -25%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $25 +$19 +74%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $15 −$1 -7%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 18 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $15 +$11 +71%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $40 +$7 +18%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $15 −$4 -25%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $30 +$12 +41%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 16 $20 −$1 -4%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $20 +$14 +67%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $40 −$40 -99%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $40 −$40 -99%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $20 +$26 +129%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $101 +$15 +15%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $20 −$11 -52%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $36 +$16 +43%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 11 $10 −$10 -99%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $5 +$33 +642%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 08 $8 −$8 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 06 $10 −$10 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $10 −$1 -11%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 29 $10 +$7 +70%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 25 $10 +$8 +83%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 20 $15 +$7 +48%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 12 $10 +$7 +65%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 11 $10 +$4 +44%
Knicks vs. 76ers May 09 $5 +$3 +60%
76ers vs. Knicks May 07 $15 +$6 +42%
76ers vs. Celtics May 03 $5 +$4 +83%
Lakers vs. Rockets Apr 30 $10 −$10 -99%
Magic vs. Pistons Apr 30 $10 +$3 +31%
Hawks vs. Knicks Apr 29 $10 +$3 +34%
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves Apr 29 $30 −$30 -100%
Magic vs. Pistons Apr 24 $15 −$15 -100%
Rockets vs. Lakers Apr 24 $15 −$15 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Raptors Apr 24 $10 +$13 +134%
Lakers vs. Rockets Apr 23 $10 −$10 -99%
Magic vs. Pistons Apr 23 $20 +$5 +27%
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Apr 19 $16 +$7 +42%
Warriors vs. Clippers Apr 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 17 $10 −$6 -60%
Magic vs. Celtics Apr 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? SELL No 100¢ $49 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 66¢ $15 1h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 59¢ $10 3h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 63¢ $20 3h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 53¢ $20 5h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 64¢ $1 8h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 63¢ $5 8h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 63¢ $6 8h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL No 32¢ $9 23h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 60¢ $15 23h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 65¢ $15 26h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 40¢ $5 27h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 33¢ $10 27h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 41¢ $6 31h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 60¢ $10 31h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 65¢ $10 32h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 66¢ $5 33h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $5 3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $20 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 64¢ $15 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 64¢ $15 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 56¢ $5 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 46¢ $14 3d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $15 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $15 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 57¢ $20 3d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $26 4d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 43¢ $5 4d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $10 5d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 42¢ $11 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $63.02 · official $63.02 (match) · 241 history records