Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T15:20:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
E1 0xe17f…9d41 world 77 markets active 2h ago coverage 415d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$6,541 (+34%) realized +$9,033 · open −$2,492
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate29%19W / 46L
Whale WR43%big bets
Drawdown37%max
Avg bet$248per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$1,327now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$1,131
14 days+$1,131
30 days+$121
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 49% +$11,371
other 26% −$2,683
politics 12% −$1,642
crypto 9% +$71
tech 3% −$510
sports 1% −$200
culture 1% −$100
economics 0% −$39
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-14.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +98.9% +79.9% 80% 80% +100.4%
≤30d 9 +10.5% -0.0% 44% 44% -3.9%
≤90d 25 +12.9% +2.1% 48% 48% +11.2%
all 65 -5.6% -14.5% 29% 29% +44.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.5% 29% +44.2%
10% -22.7% 29% +30.4%
15% -30.2% 23% +17.8%
20% -37.0% 23% +6.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 75% · top 2 80% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +23% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +59% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 43% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -3% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$866 vs −$167 · ×5.18 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.14 per $1 lost it wins $2.14
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

415d coverage
Net worth$1,327
Realized+$9,033
Unrealized−$2,492
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses19 / 46
Whale WR (big bets)43%
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions12
Markets (closed)65 / 77
History coverage415d
Avg bet$248
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown37%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 65 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $410 $419 +$9 (+2%)
Trump out as President before 2027? Yes 17¢ 10¢ $500 $279 −$221 (-44%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes 34¢ 14¢ $600 $256 −$344 (-57%)
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? Yes 16¢ 10¢ $200 $119 −$81 (-41%)
World Cup: Goalkeeper to Score? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $110 $108 −$2 (-2%)
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by July 31? Yes 8¢ 6¢ $100 $69 −$31 (-31%)
US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026? No 1¢ 0¢ $300 $55 −$245 (-82%)
Trump out as President by June 30? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $499 $11 −$489 (-98%)
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $300 $7 −$293 (-98%)
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30? Yes 34¢ 0¢ $200 $2 −$198 (-99%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Yes 26¢ 0¢ $300 $2 −$298 (-99%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 28? No 9¢ 0¢ $300 $2 −$298 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 35 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 27? Jun 26 $317 +$760 +240%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 26? Jun 25 $309 +$176 +57%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Jun 25 $105 −$64 -61%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 24 $100 +$92 +92%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 24 $100 +$167 +167%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $520 −$500 -96%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of June 1 above $195? May 31 $300 −$300 -100%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of June 1 above $185? May 31 $110 −$110 -100%
NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on June 1? May 31 $102 −$100 -98%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? Apr 23 $200 +$187 +94%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 18, 2026? Apr 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Apr 17 $100 +$118 +118%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st? Apr 12 $600 +$338 +56%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30? Apr 08 $200 −$200 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Apr 08 $100 +$23 +23%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th? Apr 08 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-15? Apr 08 $100 −$98 -98%
US x Iran ceasefire by June 30? Apr 08 $200 +$228 +114%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? Apr 08 $100 +$456 +456%
US x Iran ceasefire by May 31? Apr 08 $500 +$470 +94%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Apr 05 $200 −$200 -100%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 05 $300 +$216 +72%
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? Mar 30 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? Mar 30 $100 −$99 -99%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from March 30 to April 1, 2026? Mar 30 $200 −$198 -99%
Will Trump say "Chuck Norris" this week? (March 29) Mar 29 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from March 30 to April 1, 2026? Mar 29 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Trump say "Khamenei" this week? (March 29) Mar 26 $500 −$500 -100%
Will Trump say "Egg" this week? (March 29) Mar 26 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Trump say "Nuclear" 3+ times during Cabinet meeting on March 26? Mar 26 $100 −$100 -100%
Will "War Machine" be the top global Netflix movie this week? Mar 25 $100 −$100 -100%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Mar 25 $700 −$81 -12%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from March 23 to March 25, 2026? Mar 25 $100 +$23 +23%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Mar 22 $300 −$300 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from March 23 to March 25, 2026? Mar 22 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Trump say "Ayatollah" or "Khamenei" this week? (March 15) Mar 19 $300 −$300 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-17? Mar 18 $100 +$426 +426%
Netanyahu out by March 31? Mar 16 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Will any European country expel an Israeli ambassador by March 31? Mar 11 $500 −$500 -100%
Will a Gulf State strike Iran by March 7? Mar 07 $600 +$150 +25%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 6? Mar 04 $300 −$235 -78%
House passes Massie-Khanna war powers resolution by March 13? Mar 03 $100 −$100 -100%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Mar 03 $400 −$400 -100%
Nuclear weapon detonation by March 31? Mar 02 $500 −$500 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Feb 28 $1,000 +$12,343 +1234%
Will US or Israel strike Iran by March 31, 2026? Feb 28 $166 +$191 +115%
Les Wexner charged by June 30? Feb 28 $179 −$29 -16%
Will the US strike Iran next? Feb 19 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? Feb 18 $1,000 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026 Jan 22 $100 +$32 +32%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $100 2h
US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026? BUY No 4¢ $200 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 27? SELL No 62¢ $1,078 2d
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by July 31? BUY Yes 8¢ $104 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 26? SELL No 94¢ $485 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 28? BUY No 9¢ $319 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 27? BUY No 17¢ $317 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 26? BUY No 58¢ $309 3d
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $41 3d
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $410 3d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 99¢ $267 3d
World Cup: Goalkeeper to Score? BUY Yes 5¢ $113 19d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $520 25d
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of June 1 above $195? BUY No 28¢ $300 27d
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of June 1 above $185? BUY No 15¢ $110 27d
NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on June 1? BUY Down 48¢ $102 27d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 52¢ $100 33d
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $105 51d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY Yes 34¢ $200 63d
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? SELL No 91¢ $387 65d
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 18, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 71d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL Yes 72¢ $218 71d
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st? SELL No 86¢ $938 76d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 37¢ $100 79d
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? BUY No 47¢ $200 79d
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30? BUY No 42¢ $200 80d
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st? BUY No 55¢ $600 80d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $100 80d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY Yes 34¢ $200 80d
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th? BUY No 19¢ $100 80d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,327.10 · official $1,327.10 (match) · 131 history records