Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T14:49:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E1 0xe183…835d politics 78 markets active 2h ago coverage 631d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$16 (-0%) realized −$16 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate4%3W / 75L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$214per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 95% −$16
other 3% $0
sports 1% $0
economics 1% $0
crypto 1% $0
culture 0% $0
weather 0% $0
world 0% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.1% -9.4% 50% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 4 +0.1% -9.4% 50% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 8 -0.1% -9.6% 25% 0% -9.6%
all 78 -0.6% -10.0% 4% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.7% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.5% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 63% · top 2 93% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -1% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
0.7 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.62 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.04 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

631d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$16
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses3 / 75
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)78 / 78
History coverage631d
Avg bet$214
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 78 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $51 $0 +0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me Jun 17 $51 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $51 $0 +0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $51 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 19 $51 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee May 06 $51 $0 -1%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 14 $53 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Mar 31 $105 $0 +0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 18 $53 $0 +0%
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Mar 14 $53 $0 +0%
Will Sporting win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 11 $52 $0 +1%
Bitcoin all time high by March 31, 2026? Mar 06 $52 $0 +0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 04 $52 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,800 in February? Feb 25 $52 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 06 $51 $0 -0%
Will The Weeknd be the top Spotify artist for 2025? Nov 24 $51 $0 -0%
Will the Ottawa Senators win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Jan 26 $2 $0 +0%
Will Jusuf Nurkic lead the NBA in Rebounds? Jan 26 $2 $0 +0%
Scott Bessent confirmed as Treasury Secretary? Jan 26 $2 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Steve Bannon in his first 100 days? Jan 26 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Sacramento Kings win the Western Conference? Jan 26 $3 $0 +0%
Will Olympiacos win the UEFA Europa League? Jan 26 $3 $0 +0%
Will Jaylen Brown lead the NBA in scoring? Jan 26 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Utah Hockey Club win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Jan 26 $3 $0 +0%
Will Jared Kushner be a member of the Trump administration? Jan 26 $4 $0 +0%
Chelsea wins the Premier League? Jan 26 $4 $0 -0%
Will DeMar DeRozan lead the NBA in scoring? Jan 26 $4 $0 +0%
Will Arsenal win the UEFA Champions League? Jan 26 $4 $0 +0%
Will Nikola Jokic lead the NBA in scoring? Jan 26 $4 $0 +0%
Will Saquon Barkley be the top Fantasy Running Back? Jan 26 $2 $0 +0%
Will Berachain launch in 2024? Jan 26 $2 $0 +0%
Will Bologna win the UEFA Champions League? Jan 26 $3 $0 +0%
Will the 49ers win the NFC Championship? Jan 26 $4 $0 +0%
Will 'New Blue Sun' win Album of the Year? Dec 20 $1 $0 -1%
Will 'Emilia Pérez' win the Golden Globe for Best Screenplay? Dec 20 $1 $0 -2%
Pudgy Penguins airdrop in 2024? Dec 20 $2 $0 +0%
1-25 bps decrease in ECB interest rates after 2024 December meeting? Dec 20 $3 $0 +0%
GOP wins popular vote by 6-7%? Dec 20 $4 $0 +0%
Will the November 2024 temperature increase be between 1.25-1.29°C? Dec 20 $4 $0 +0%
26-50 bps decrease in ECB interest rates after 2024 December meeting? Dec 10 $1 $0 -3%
Will Andrew Bailey be Trump's Attorney General? Dec 10 $1 $0 -0%
Will 'Balatro' win Game of the Year? Dec 10 $1 $0 -2%
Will Nebraska win the 2025 College Football Playoff? Dec 10 $2 $0 +0%
Will Louisville win the 2025 College Football Playoff? Dec 10 $4 $0 +0%
Will Christian McCaffrey win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season? Nov 25 $0 $0 -0%
Will Nikola Vucevic lead the NBA in Rebounds? Nov 25 $0 $0 -4%
Will 'Fortnight' win Song of the Year? Nov 25 $1 $0 -3%
Will 'Deadpool 3' gross most in 2024? Nov 18 $0 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio be a member of the Trump administration? Nov 18 $0 $0 -1%
Will the Saints win Super Bowl 2025? Nov 18 $1 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $51 1h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $51 15h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $51 5d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $51 5d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $51 11d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $51 13d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $51 20d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $51 21d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $51 34d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $51 35d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 97¢ $51 47d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 98¢ $51 48d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $53 69d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $53 70d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 96¢ $53 83d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY No 96¢ $53 84d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 96¢ $53 88d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY No 96¢ $53 89d
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 99¢ $53 96d
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 99¢ $53 97d
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL No 100¢ $53 99d
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY No 100¢ $53 100d
Will Sporting win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 100¢ $53 102d
Will Sporting win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 99¢ $52 103d
Bitcoin all time high by March 31, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $52 108d
Bitcoin all time high by March 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $52 109d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $52 110d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $52 110d
Will Ethereum reach $3,800 in February? SELL No 100¢ $52 117d
Will Ethereum reach $3,800 in February? BUY No 100¢ $52 117d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 179 history records