Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T04:23:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E1 0xe187…997c politics 55 markets active 2h ago coverage 238d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$5 (-0%) realized −$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate15%8W / 45L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$75per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$71now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 52% −$3
other 20% $0
sports 18% −$1
crypto 7% $0
economics 4% $0
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-12.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.0% -9.5% 50% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 6 -12.6% -21.0% 17% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 6 -12.6% -21.0% 17% 0% -9.8%
all 53 -3.7% -12.9% 15% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.9% 0% -9.6%
10% -21.2% 0% -18.3%
15% -28.9% 0% -26.2%
20% -35.8% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 65% · top 2 74% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.36 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.26 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

238d coverage
Net worth$71
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)15%
Wins / losses8 / 45
Open positions2
Markets (closed)53 / 55
History coverage238d
Avg bet$75
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 53 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $70 $70 −$0 (-0%)
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 22? Jun 22 $70 $0 +0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 21 $145 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $71 $0 -0%
Will Richard Grenell be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 03 $70 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 31 $1 −$1 -75%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 30 $72 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m Mar 10 $73 $0 +0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Feb 14 $71 $0 -0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 31 $71 $0 +0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 26 $71 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 24 $71 $0 -0%
Will Bodo Glimt win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 22 $74 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 21 $74 $0 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 19 $71 $0 -0%
Will Nottm Forest win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 18 $1 $0 -50%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 17 $146 $0 -0%
New "Stranger Things" episode released by January 14? Jan 15 $72 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on January 12? Jan 14 $71 $0 +0%
Will Slavia Pragu win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 11 $74 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 10 $72 $0 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 07 $74 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 05 $147 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 04 $148 $0 -0%
Will Union Saint-Gilloise win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 31 $75 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Wizards win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 29 $146 $0 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Dec 28 $4 $0 -8%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 27 $2 $0 -17%
Will Brighton win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Dec 26 $75 $0 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 22 $77 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 20 $149 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bulls win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 18 $74 $0 +0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 16 $150 $0 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 13 $75 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 10 $74 $0 -0%
Will Athletic Club win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 08 $77 $0 -0%
Will Monaco win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 06 $77 $0 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 04 $73 $0 -0%
Kinetiq FDV above $50M one day after launch? Nov 29 $74 $0 +0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 25 $75 $0 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 25 $3 $0 -14%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 24 $147 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win on 2025-11-18? Nov 19 $74 +$1 +1%
Will the Tennessee Titans win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 17 $76 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 16 $1 $0 -25%
Will the Sacramento Kings win the 2026 NBA Finals? Nov 15 $76 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 15 $2 $0 -8%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 12 $74 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Browns win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 09 $76 $0 -0%
Will the Las Vegas Raiders win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 08 $75 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 06 $75 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $70 1h
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 22? BUY Yes 100¢ $70 46h
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 46h
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 3d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $71 3d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $72 14d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $71 15d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $71 17d
Will Richard Grenell be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $70 20d
Will Richard Grenell be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $70 23d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 23d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 24d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $71 24d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $72 26d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m SELL No 100¢ $73 106d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m BUY No 100¢ $73 117d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $71 129d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $71 132d
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting? BUY No 100¢ $71 147d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 100¢ $71 148d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 100¢ $71 149d
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $71 150d
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $71 151d
Will Bodo Glimt win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 100¢ $74 152d
Will Bodo Glimt win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 100¢ $74 153d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $73 154d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $74 154d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $71 155d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 100¢ $71 156d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $70.97 · official $70.97 (match) · 203 history records