Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T02:16:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
E1 0xe187…a69c sports 221 markets active 1h ago coverage 16d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,182 (+4%) realized +$1,189 · open −$7
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate57%124W / 95L
Drawdown86%max
Avg bet$149per market
Trades / day34.4pace
Fees−$491est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$310now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$215
7 days+$153
14 days−$91
30 days+$674
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 94% +$789
other 6% −$55
world 0% −$67
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-13.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 86 -9.2% -17.8% 52% 45% -8.5%
≤30d 219 -3.8% -13.0% 57% 51% -7.7%
≤90d 219 -3.8% -13.0% 57% 51% -7.7%
all 219 -3.8% -13.0% 57% 51% -7.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover34.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.0% 51% -7.7%
10% ← realistic here -21.3% 35% -16.5%
15% -28.9% 21% -24.6%
20% -35.9% 12% -32.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$56 vs −$66 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.11 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$310
Realized+$1,189
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses124 / 95
Est. fees paid−$491
Open positions2
Markets (closed)219 / 221
History coverage16d
Avg bet$149
Trades / day34.4
Drawdown86%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 219 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Golden State Valkyries Golden State Valkyries 66¢ 64¢ $216 $212 −$5 (-2%)
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? No 81¢ 80¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings Jun 16 $101 −$83 -82%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La Jun 15 $38 −$38 -100%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner Jun 15 $51 +$41 +81%
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 15 $47 +$38 +81%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $100 −$26 -26%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $101 +$19 +19%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo Jun 15 $101 +$33 +33%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $90 +$28 +32%
Paris Basketball vs. Monaco Jun 15 $27 −$27 -100%
FC Bayern Munchen vs. Alba Berlin Jun 14 $65 −$37 -57%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $306 −$93 -31%
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs Metizport (BO3) - ROG Journey Playoffs Jun 14 $101 −$101 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $111 −$46 -42%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $102 +$109 +107%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 14 $101 +$20 +20%
Dallas Wings vs. PortlandFire Jun 14 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $101 +$21 +21%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Phoenix Mercury Jun 14 $102 +$5 +5%
Indiana Fever vs. Connecticut Sun Jun 14 $101 +$24 +24%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 13 $407 +$363 +89%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau (BO5) - EMEA Masters P Jun 13 $384 +$176 +46%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs LOS (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & Jun 13 $96 +$47 +49%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $58 −$53 -92%
Game Handicap: GEN (-2.5) vs KT Rolster (+2.5) Jun 13 $61 −$3 -5%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 13 $145 −$43 -29%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 13 $42 +$3 +6%
Golden State Valkyries vs. Seattle Storm Jun 13 $88 +$13 +15%
Toronto Tempo vs. Washington Mystics Jun 13 $279 −$111 -40%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $81 −$4 -5%
Call of Duty: Paris Gentle Mates vs FaZe Vegas (BO5) - Call of Duty Le Jun 12 $107 +$96 +89%
Partizan vs. BC Dubai Jun 12 $122 +$7 +6%
FC Bayern Munchen vs. Alba Berlin Jun 12 $40 −$22 -55%
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl Jun 12 $271 −$271 -100%
Bosnia-Herzegovina leading at halftime? Jun 12 $97 −$75 -78%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pla Jun 12 $320 +$148 +46%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $95 −$43 -45%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $101 −$101 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $64 +$7 +11%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $40 +$15 +38%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $474 −$156 -33%
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. LG Twins Jun 12 $101 −$61 -60%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $101 +$15 +15%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Team Liquid ID vs Bigetron by Vitality (BO5) Jun 12 $101 +$24 +24%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $101 +$40 +40%
Gimnasia vs. Quimsa Jun 12 $257 +$147 +57%
LoL: BOMBA Team vs Anubis Gaming (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group D Jun 12 $202 −$202 -100%
LoL: LOUD vs LOS (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM Quali Jun 12 $159 +$98 +62%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs RED Canids - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $146 +$13 +9%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $99 +$17 +17%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $108 +$23 +21%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Golden State Valkyries BUY Golden State Valkyries 66¢ $219 1h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 81¢ $101 1h
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings SELL Las Vegas Aces 11¢ $18 1h
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings BUY Las Vegas Aces 60¢ $101 5h
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner SELL Galions 99¢ $92 8h
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs SELL Galions 99¢ $84 8h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 64¢ $74 8h
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner BUY Galions 54¢ $51 9h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 85¢ $100 9h
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs BUY Galions 54¢ $47 10h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner SELL BetBoom Team 99¢ $119 11h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 83¢ $101 11h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo SELL EDward Gaming 81¢ $134 11h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo BUY EDward Gaming 60¢ $101 12h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL 9z 99¢ $118 12h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 75¢ $90 12h
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La BUY Saigon Warriors 50¢ $38 16h
Paris Basketball vs. Monaco BUY Monaco 47¢ $27 34h
FC Bayern Munchen vs. Alba Berlin SELL FC Bayern Munchen 22¢ $13 34h
FC Bayern Munchen vs. Alba Berlin SELL FC Bayern Munchen 42¢ $14 34h
FC Bayern Munchen vs. Alba Berlin BUY FC Bayern Munchen 65¢ $65 36h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Monte 37¢ $64 36h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Monte 62¢ $111 36h
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs Metizport (BO3) - ROG Journey Playoffs BUY fnatic 48¢ $101 39h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 62¢ $104 42h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner SELL T1 99¢ $211 42h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 47¢ $102 42h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL Gen.G 77¢ $212 42h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 72¢ $202 45h
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score in First Half SELL No 99¢ $121 45h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $309.65 · official $309.65 (match) · 603 history records