Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T16:34:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E1 0xe189…16a6 other 226 markets active 1h ago coverage 130d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$69 (-0%) realized −$69 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate8%18W / 207L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$226per market
Trades / day10.0pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$48now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$17
14 days−$30
30 days−$41
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% −$38
sports 23% −$16
politics 10% −$9
culture 8% −$7
economics 6% −$5
crypto 4% −$4
world 3% −$2
finance 1% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 73 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 171 -0.2% -9.7% 8% 0% -9.7%
all 225 -0.2% -9.7% 8% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.68 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.06 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

130d coverage
Net worth$48
Realized−$69
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses18 / 207
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)225 / 226
History coverage130d
Avg bet$226
Trades / day10.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 225 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? No 99¢ 99¢ $48 $48 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 20 $235 $0 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 20 $112 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $495 −$1 -0%
Will Seattle Sounders FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 19 $231 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 19 $257 $0 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 19 $237 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 18 $186 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 18 $464 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 18 $450 −$1 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 17 $391 −$1 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $394 $0 -0%
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 Jun 17 $50 $0 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $444 −$1 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $450 −$1 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $213 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $654 −$1 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 16 $656 −$1 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 16 $495 −$1 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 16 $203 $0 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $507 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $242 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $259 −$1 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $139 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $275 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $323 −$1 -0%
Will Philadelphia Union win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 14 $87 $0 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 14 $176 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $332 −$1 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Jun 13 $501 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $53 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $212 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $214 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $188 $0 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 11 $462 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $889 −$1 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $165 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $114 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 11 $312 $0 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $257 −$1 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $203 $0 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 09 $428 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 09 $514 −$1 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 08 $537 −$1 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 08 $332 −$1 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 08 $610 −$2 -0%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 07 $256 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 07 $118 $0 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 07 $278 −$1 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 07 $185 $0 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 06 $195 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $48 57m
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $48 1h
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $48 3h
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $48 7h
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $48 9h
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $48 10h
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $49 12h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 96¢ $49 13h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $49 15h
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $49 16h
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $49 17h
Will Seattle Sounders FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 96¢ $49 23h
Will Seattle Sounders FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 96¢ $49 24h
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $49 29h
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $49 31h
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $49 32h
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $49 34h
Will Seattle Sounders FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 96¢ $13 36h
Will Seattle Sounders FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 96¢ $37 38h
Will Seattle Sounders FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 96¢ $49 40h
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $49 40h
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $50 41h
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $50 2d
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $50 2d
Will Seattle Sounders FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 96¢ $37 2d
Will Seattle Sounders FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 97¢ $12 2d
Will Seattle Sounders FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 97¢ $50 2d
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $50 2d
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $50 2d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $50 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $48.24 · official $48.24 (match) · 1355 history records