Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T20:00:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E1 0xe18a…a623 crypto 13 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate92%12W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day12.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -0.9% -10.4% 92% 15% -14.7%
≤30d 13 -0.9% -10.4% 92% 15% -14.7%
≤90d 13 -0.9% -10.4% 92% 15% -14.7%
all 13 -0.9% -10.4% 92% 15% -14.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.4% 15% -14.7%
10% -19.0% 8% -22.8%
15% -26.8% 8% -30.3%
20% -34.0% 0% -37.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 62% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$5 · ×0.04 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)92%
Wins / losses12 / 1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)13 / 13
History coverage1d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day12.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 13 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 35 history records