Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T18:45:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E1 0xe18a…fd87 other 908 markets active 2h ago coverage 113d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 113d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$418 (+0%) realized +$792 · open −$374
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate41%367W / 537L
Whale WR44%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$187per market
Trades / day23.8pace
Fees−$156est.
Kalshi-fit11%portable
Net worth$127now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 113d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 92% −$14,298
sports 5% −$960
world 2% +$2,403
crypto 0% +$94
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-13.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 +9.3% -1.1% 45% 45% +12.0%
≤30d 80 +11.0% +0.4% 50% 49% +11.5%
≤90d 678 -6.8% -15.6% 43% 41% -18.7%
all 904 -4.5% -13.6% 41% 39% -16.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.6% 39% -16.1%
10% ← realistic here -21.9% 38% -24.2%
15% -29.4% 36% -31.5%
20% -36.4% 32% -38.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 44% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$217 vs −$172 · ×1.26 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

113d coverage
Net worth$127
Realized+$792
Unrealized−$374
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses367 / 537
Whale WR (big bets)44%
Est. fees paid−$156
Open positions4
Markets (closed)904 / 908
History coverage113d ⚠
Avg bet$187
Trades / day23.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit11%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 904 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $191 $125 −$65 (-34%)
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Yes 25¢ 0¢ $110 $1 −$109 (-99%)
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 Under 19¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Under 26¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 114 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $203 +$214 +105%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $205 −$200 -98%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $111 −$110 -99%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $255 −$250 -98%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $123 +$123 +100%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $102 +$25 +25%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $103 −$101 -98%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $47 −$47 -100%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $151 +$239 +158%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $49 −$48 -97%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $112 −$110 -98%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $206 +$160 +78%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $102 +$181 +177%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $102 +$243 +238%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $102 −$100 -98%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $103 −$101 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $107 +$14 +13%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $99 +$29 +29%
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) Jun 15 $12 −$12 -97%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $106 +$94 +89%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $161 +$139 +86%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $95 −$93 -98%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $203 +$247 +122%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $103 +$667 +650%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $139 +$141 +101%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $29 +$20 +68%
Will Wuhan San Zhen FC vs. Yunnan Yukun FC end in a draw? Jun 01 $102 +$268 +262%
Will Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $112 +$100 +90%
Will Zhejiang Zhiye FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $51 +$116 +226%
Will Qingdao Xihaian FC vs. Shanghai Shenhua FC end in a draw? May 30 $102 +$255 +250%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? May 30 $104 +$120 +115%
Will Chengdu Rongcheng FC vs. Shandong Taishan FC end in a draw? May 30 $51 −$49 -98%
Will Chongqing Tonglianglong FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $57 −$56 -98%
Will Liaoning Tieren FC win on 2026-05-29? May 29 $121 +$72 +60%
Will Liaoning Tieren FC vs. Shanghai Haigang FC end in a draw? May 29 $62 −$61 -98%
Will Toulouse FC win on 2026-05-17? May 27 $121 +$66 +54%
Will Crystal Palace FC vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid end in a draw? May 27 $132 −$130 -98%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-27? May 27 $40 −$40 -99%
Crystal Palace FC vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 0.5 May 27 $72 −$70 -98%
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $75 +$125 +165%
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $112 +$96 +86%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $112 +$133 +119%
Villarreal CF vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 2.5 May 24 $102 −$100 -98%
US Lecce vs. Genoa CFC: O/U 2.5 May 24 $81 −$80 -98%
Will Como 1907 win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $74 −$74 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 26¢ $102 1h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 19¢ $102 1h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $112 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $203 41h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 21¢ $205 44h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 64¢ $111 47h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $102 47h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 37¢ $153 47h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 36¢ $102 47h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? SELL Yes 60¢ $245 2d
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 44¢ $127 2d
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 34¢ $102 2d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $123 2d
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $103 2d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 51¢ $19 2d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 51¢ $3 2d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 51¢ $21 2d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 51¢ $5 2d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 24¢ $5 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 38¢ $151 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 7¢ $49 2d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 32¢ $102 2d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $112 2d
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $102 3d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL Yes 43¢ $200 3d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $102 3d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL Yes 39¢ $124 3d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 63¢ $283 3d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL Yes 36¢ $41 3d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 22¢ $102 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $126.71 · official $127.37 (match) · 3500 history records