Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T16:39:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5

score

E1 0xe18a…e840 other 4 markets active 2h ago coverage 309d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL −$126 (-36%) realized −$109 · open −$17

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -68% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -71% what you keep after slip

Net edge-71%after slip

Net WR0%break-even

Win rate0%0W / 3L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$86per market

Trades / day0.0pace

Kalshi-fit50%portable

Net worth$80now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 309d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +0%

net ROI/market (all)-71.1%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	no closed markets
≤30d	no closed markets
≤90d	no closed markets
all	3	-68.0%	-71.1%	0%	0%	-55.8%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.0 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-71.1%	0%	-55.8%
10%	-73.8%	0%	-60.0%
15%	-76.4%	0%	-63.9%
20%	-78.7%	0%	-67.4%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top —% · top 2 —% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI — too few recent

Fragile wins

—% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -68% · $-wt -51% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

— vs −$42 no data

Profit factor

×0.0 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

309d coverage

Net worth$80

Realized−$109

Unrealized−$17

Win rate (resolved)0%

Wins / losses0 / 3

Open positions1

Markets (closed)3 / 4

History coverage309d

Avg bet$86

Trades / day0.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 3 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26?	Yes	20¢	16¢	$97	$80	−$17 (-18%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Elon tweet less than 200 times September 5–12?	Sep 09	$4	−$4	-100%
Will Sylvi Listhaug become the next Prime Minister of Norway?	Sep 09	$116	−$112	-96%
Will Ap win the most seats in the next Norwegian parliamentary electio	Aug 21	$126	−$9	-8%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	20¢	$99	1h
Will Elon tweet less than 200 times September 5–12?	BUY Yes	6¢	$4	290d
Will Sylvi Listhaug become the next Prime Minister of Norway?	SELL Yes	1¢	$4	290d
Will Sylvi Listhaug become the next Prime Minister of Norway?	BUY Yes	23¢	$116	308d
Will Ap win the most seats in the next Norwegian parliamentary electio	SELL No	20¢	$116	308d
Will Ap win the most seats in the next Norwegian parliamentary electio	BUY No	22¢	$126	308d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $79.88 · official $79.88 (match) · 6 history records