Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:28:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E1 0xe18d…f86a other 46 markets active 1h ago coverage 451d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate44%20W / 25L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$55now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 48% +$4
other 34% −$4
politics 7% +$1
finance 5% $0
tech 2% −$1
culture 2% $0
sports 1% −$1
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 12 -0.4% -9.9% 33% 0% -9.0%
≤90d 12 -0.4% -9.9% 33% 0% -9.0%
all 45 -0.2% -9.7% 44% 4% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 4% -9.5%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

451d coverage
Net worth$55
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses20 / 25
Open positions1
Markets (closed)45 / 46
History coverage451d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 45 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? No 91¢ 91¢ $55 $55 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? Jun 02 $16 −$2 -11%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 27 $68 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 26 $62 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 25 $3 $0 -4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 25 $37 $0 +1%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 25 $34 $0 -0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 25 $63 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 24 $35 +$2 +7%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 23 $14 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 23 $51 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 23 $52 +$1 +2%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 21 $2 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Nov 26 $10 $0 +0%
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? Nov 25 $5 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win on 2025-11-30? Nov 25 $12 $0 -0%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Nov 25 $10 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 14 $6 +$1 +14%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Oct 14 $8 $0 +1%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jul 14 $15 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Jul 04 $7 $0 +0%
Will ODS win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Jul 01 $4 $0 +3%
Will Donald Trump be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 01 $9 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 25 $9 $0 +0%
Israel strike on Iran on June 24? Jun 21 $9 $0 +4%
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense before July? Jun 21 $9 $0 +1%
Will 'The Fantastic Four: First Steps' have the best domestic opening Jun 20 $9 $0 -0%
US military action against Iran before July? Jun 18 $8 +$1 +13%
Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with Germany before July? Jun 18 $8 $0 +1%
Will Xi Jinping be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 17 $8 $0 +1%
Will Oracle buy TikTok? Jun 14 $8 $0 -4%
Will 'A Minecraft Movie' have the best domestic opening weekend in 202 Jun 10 $8 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025? Jun 09 $8 $0 -1%
Will Mistral have a #1 AI model this year? Jun 06 $8 $0 -4%
Will Donald Trump visit Canada in 2025? Jun 05 $8 $0 +1%
Will Sławomir Mentzen be the next President of Poland? Jun 03 $7 +$1 +8%
Will Elon tweet 300–324 times May 23–30? May 31 $1 $0 +1%
Will Charles Maung Bo be the next pope? May 09 $1 $0 +1%
Will the Jets draft a QB in the first round of the 2025 NFL Draft? Apr 19 $9 −$1 -12%
Will Lilo & Stitch be the top grossing movie of 2025? Apr 19 $8 $0 +3%
Trump ends taxes on tips in first 100 days? Apr 14 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2025 World Series? Apr 13 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Bloc Québécois win the most seats in Quebec in the next Canad Apr 13 $8 $0 -2%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Apr 11 $2 $0 -5%
Will Kentucky win the Midwest region of the 2025 NCAA Tournament? Mar 31 $15 −$5 -31%
Will Elon tweet 400-424 times March 21-28? Mar 27 $13 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $55 1h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 71¢ $9 22d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 69¢ $20 22d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 69¢ $29 22d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL Yes 17¢ $1 22d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL Yes 17¢ $13 22d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY Yes 19¢ $16 22d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 50¢ $24 22d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 50¢ $38 22d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 50¢ $62 22d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $3 23d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $3 23d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $0 23d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 83¢ $6 23d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 83¢ $32 23d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 82¢ $37 23d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $30 23d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $4 23d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $34 23d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $61 23d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $61 24d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL No 97¢ $21 24d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL No 97¢ $8 24d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL No 97¢ $9 24d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY No 91¢ $35 24d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 35¢ $39 24d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 35¢ $39 24d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? SELL Yes 25¢ $14 25d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 25d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? BUY Yes 25¢ $4 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $54.60 · official $54.60 (match) · 146 history records