Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:14:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E1 0xe18e…b5b5 other 239 markets active 0h ago coverage 130d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$74 (-0%) realized −$74 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate4%9W / 229L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$199per market
Trades / day10.1pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$44now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$20
14 days−$27
30 days−$37
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% −$36
sports 25% −$24
politics 8% −$6
culture 7% −$7
crypto 5% −$4
economics 5% −$3
world 4% −$4
tech 1% −$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 78 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 177 -0.2% -9.7% 2% 0% -9.7%
all 238 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 70% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.27 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

130d coverage
Net worth$44
Realized−$74
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses9 / 229
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions1
Markets (closed)238 / 239
History coverage130d
Avg bet$199
Trades / day10.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 238 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 97¢ 97¢ $44 $44 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $649 −$1 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 20 $196 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 20 $62 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $511 −$1 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 19 $488 −$1 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 19 $144 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $377 −$1 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 18 $90 $0 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 18 $100 $0 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 18 $643 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $282 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 18 $97 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 18 $582 −$1 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 18 $173 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $142 $0 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $180 $0 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 17 $156 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $416 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 17 $395 $0 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $390 −$1 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 17 $192 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $313 −$1 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 16 $680 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $230 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $182 −$1 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 16 $502 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $283 −$1 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $109 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $171 $0 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $687 −$1 -0%
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $377 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $467 −$1 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 14 $102 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $607 $0 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $235 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $234 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $119 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $411 −$1 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $305 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 12 $285 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $217 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $248 $0 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $105 $0 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 12 $226 −$1 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 11 $155 $0 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 10 $181 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $260 −$1 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Jun 09 $182 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 09 $109 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 09 $291 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $44 24m
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $44 5h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $44 7h
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $44 8h
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $44 9h
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 96¢ $44 11h
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 96¢ $45 12h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 96¢ $45 14h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $45 15h
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $45 17h
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $45 19h
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $45 23h
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $45 24h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $45 26h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $45 28h
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $45 36h
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $45 37h
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $45 38h
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $45 40h
Xi Jinping out by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $45 42h
Xi Jinping out by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $45 43h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $45 2d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $45 2d
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $45 2d
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $45 2d
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $45 2d
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $45 2d
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $46 2d
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $46 2d
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $34 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $44.13 · official $44.13 (match) · 1360 history records