Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T02:05:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E1 0xe192…c237 other 20 markets active 4h ago coverage 46d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$15,870 (-32%) realized −$1,950 · open −$13,920
Gross ROI / mkt -45% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -52% what you keep after slip
Net edge-52%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate26%5W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2,446per market
Trades / day6.6pace
Fees−$23est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$30,009now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$1,951
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 92% −$13,972
politics 4% −$897
sports 3% −$1,296
crypto 0% −$38
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-50.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 7 -32.8% -39.2% 29% 14% -67.2%
≤90d 19 -44.7% -50.0% 26% 21% -62.3%
all 19 -44.7% -50.0% 26% 21% -62.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -50.0% 21% -62.3%
10% -54.8% 16% -65.9%
15% -59.2% 11% -69.2%
20% -63.2% 11% -72.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 72% · top 2 94% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -58% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -45% · $-wt -58% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -49% → late -41% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
14.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$37 vs −$177 · ×0.21 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.08 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

46d coverage
Net worth$30,009
Realized−$1,950
Unrealized−$13,920
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses5 / 14
Est. fees paid−$23
Open positions1
Markets (closed)19 / 20
History coverage46d
Avg bet$2,446
Trades / day6.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 19 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Yes 14¢ 10¢ $43,929 $30,009 −$13,920 (-32%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $5 −$1 -16%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $5 $0 -6%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $5 $0 +6%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $5 +$2 +30%
1H Spread: Spurs (-3.5) Jun 06 $1,097 −$1,085 -99%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? Jun 05 $1,935 −$846 -44%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $22 −$21 -97%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? May 24 $1 −$1 -96%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 222.5 May 23 $144 −$143 -100%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 21? May 21 $51 +$9 +17%
1H Spread: Thunder (-3.5) May 21 $51 +$42 +83%
Spread: Knicks (-5.5) May 20 $151 +$135 +90%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? May 19 $105 −$40 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET May 19 $52 −$38 -72%
Rainbow Six Siege: G2 Esports vs Twisted Minds - Game 1 Winner May 11 $20 −$20 -99%
Thunder vs. Lakers: O/U 212.5 May 09 $47 −$46 -99%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 09 $51 −$51 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) May 08 $130 −$128 -98%
Will Trump say "Covid" or "Pandemic" during events with Xi Jinping? May 08 $54 −$52 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY Yes 10¢ $5,698 4h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY Yes 13¢ $39 13d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY Yes 14¢ $4,770 13d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY Yes 14¢ $15 13d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $4 13d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $5 13d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $5 13d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY Yes 14¢ $12 15d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $7 15d
1H Spread: Spurs (-3.5) BUY Spurs 56¢ $8 18d
1H Spread: Spurs (-3.5) BUY Spurs 56¢ $3 18d
1H Spread: Spurs (-3.5) BUY Spurs 56¢ $952 18d
1H Spread: Spurs (-3.5) BUY Spurs 55¢ $39 18d
1H Spread: Spurs (-3.5) BUY Spurs 55¢ $14 18d
1H Spread: Spurs (-3.5) BUY Spurs 55¢ $61 18d
1H Spread: Spurs (-3.5) BUY Spurs 55¢ $2 18d
1H Spread: Spurs (-3.5) BUY Spurs 55¢ $1 18d
1H Spread: Spurs (-3.5) BUY Spurs 55¢ $17 18d
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? SELL Yes 37¢ $1,088 18d
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? SELL Yes 41¢ $1 18d
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $22 18d
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? BUY Yes 63¢ $1,071 18d
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? BUY Yes 63¢ $155 18d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $5 19d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $5 19d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $5 19d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $5 19d
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? BUY Yes 63¢ $696 19d
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? BUY Yes 58¢ $12 22d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY Yes 15¢ $16 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30,009.16 · official $30,009.16 (match) · 330 history records