Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T09:31:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
E1 0xe197…2ce7 other 68 markets active 2h ago coverage 11d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$602 (+6%) realized +$658 · open −$56
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate30%20W / 46L
Whale WR83%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$160per market
Trades / day9.9pace
Fees−$60est.
Kalshi-fit46%portable
Net worth$194now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$257
7 days+$380
14 days+$266
30 days+$266
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 72% +$886
sports 23% −$957
crypto 5% +$281
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-22.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 -10.8% -19.3% 36% 36% -5.7%
≤30d 66 -14.4% -22.6% 30% 30% -7.2%
≤90d 66 -14.4% -22.6% 30% 30% -7.2%
all 66 -14.4% -22.6% 30% 30% -7.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.6% 30% -7.2%
10% -30.0% 27% -16.1%
15% -36.7% 26% -24.2%
20% -42.9% 24% -31.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 83% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -15% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$196 vs −$79 · ×2.47 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.07 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$194
Realized+$658
Unrealized−$56
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses20 / 46
Whale WR (big bets)83%
Est. fees paid−$60
Open positions2
Markets (closed)66 / 68
History coverage11d
Avg bet$160
Trades / day9.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit46%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 66 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? No 32¢ 30¢ $200 $184 −$16 (-8%)
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Inner Circle (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Qualifier Playoffs Inner Circle 31¢ 6¢ $50 $9 −$41 (-81%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
New York Liberty vs. Las Vegas Aces Jun 24 $51 +$60 +116%
Exact Score: England 3 - 0 Ghana? Jun 24 $104 −$104 -100%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 5.5 Jun 24 $206 −$206 -100%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Jun 24 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $103 −$100 -97%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $103 −$100 -97%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $206 −$65 -32%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $207 −$49 -24%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $311 −$214 -69%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $103 +$68 +66%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $1,027 +$1,246 +121%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $155 −$155 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 23 $103 −$103 -100%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia C Jun 22 $21 +$23 +111%
New York Liberty vs. Los Angeles Sparks Jun 22 $21 +$97 +468%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $103 +$209 +203%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $1,058 +$170 +16%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 22 $104 −$104 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $104 −$104 -100%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs Jun 22 $62 −$62 -100%
Overwatch: O2 Blast vs Crazy Raccoon (BO3) - OCS Korea Stage 2 Group S Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 22 $309 −$309 -100%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 22 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 22 $534 −$534 -100%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 22 $207 −$207 -100%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 2 DR Congo? Jun 22 $58 −$58 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $204 −$204 -100%
Will Uruguay win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $26 −$12 -47%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Jun 21 $21 +$33 +163%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $318 +$161 +51%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $510 +$225 +44%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $546 +$281 +52%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $309 −$1 -0%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $517 +$340 +66%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $399 +$118 +30%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $440 +$302 +69%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $104 −$45 -44%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $103 −$77 -75%
Portugal leading at halftime? Jun 17 $200 −$10 -5%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $144 +$91 +63%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $122 +$23 +19%
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $77 −$56 -72%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $41 −$20 -47%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $52 −$52 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $43 −$43 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $52 −$52 -100%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 17 $129 −$129 -100%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 0 Morocco? Jun 17 $31 −$31 -100%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 3 Switzerland? Jun 17 $31 −$31 -100%
LoL: Solary vs G2 NORD (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 17 $36 −$36 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Inner Circle (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Q BUY Inner Circle 31¢ $52 1h
Exact Score: England 3 - 0 Ghana? BUY Yes 13¢ $104 14h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 33¢ $103 14h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 37¢ $103 14h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 32¢ $206 15h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 29¢ $140 15h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 40¢ $206 15h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 Uzbekistan? SELL Yes 12¢ $158 15h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 Uzbekistan? SELL Yes 5¢ $96 16h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 14¢ $207 28h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 15¢ $311 28h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 32¢ $206 28h
New York Liberty vs. Las Vegas Aces BUY New York Liberty 45¢ $51 28h
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia BUY REKONIX 42¢ $21 28h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? SELL No 61¢ $171 28h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 35¢ $103 30h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 44¢ $1,027 41h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 33¢ $155 41h
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia C SELL Grind Back 38¢ $44 2d
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia C BUY Grind Back 17¢ $21 2d
New York Liberty vs. Los Angeles Sparks BUY Los Angeles Sparks 17¢ $21 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 39¢ $103 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 32¢ $103 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 31¢ $103 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 69¢ $906 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $955 2d
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 8¢ $104 2d
Will Uruguay win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $14 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 12¢ $104 2d
Will Uruguay win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 21¢ $26 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $193.65 · official $193.65 (match) · 146 history records