Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T02:39:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
E1 0xe198…c563 crypto 239 markets active 1h ago coverage 15d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (51 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$64 (-15%) realized −$63 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate40%93W / 142L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day51.3pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$99
30 days−$83
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 50% −$46
crypto 50% −$37
other 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (51 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-22.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 -3.6% -12.8% 19% 6% -11.1%
≤30d 235 -14.2% -22.4% 40% 30% -27.7%
≤90d 235 -14.2% -22.4% 40% 30% -27.7%
all 235 -14.2% -22.4% 40% 30% -27.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover51.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -22.4% 30% -27.7%
10% ← realistic here -29.8% 22% -34.6%
15% -36.6% 17% -40.9%
20% -42.8% 14% -46.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.52 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

15d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized−$63
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses93 / 142
Open positions4
Markets (closed)235 / 239
History coverage15d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day51.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 235 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 16? No 100¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 16? No 100¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will Xi meet with Takaichi by December 31, 2026? No 66¢ 58¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-11%)
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? Yes 34¢ 3¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-90%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 15? Jun 15 $7 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 14? Jun 14 $7 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 13? Jun 14 $2 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 13? Jun 14 $3 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 13? Jun 14 $1 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 12? Jun 12 $3 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on June 12? Jun 12 $3 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 +$1 +37%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 11? Jun 11 $3 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 23°C or below on June 11? Jun 11 $1 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1 $0 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1 $0 -12%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 10? Jun 10 $2 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 9? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on June 9? Jun 09 $1 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on June 9? Jun 09 $1 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on June 9? Jun 09 $1 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 27°C on June 9? Jun 09 $1 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 9? Jun 09 $2 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on June 9? Jun 09 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 9? Jun 09 $1 $0 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 9? Jun 09 $3 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 9? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -68%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 9? Jun 09 $3 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4PM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 4PM ET Jun 07 $1 $0 +22%
Solana Up or Down - June 7, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 07 $1 $0 +10%
XRP Up or Down - June 7, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 07 $1 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 07 $1 +$1 +47%
XRP Up or Down - June 7, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 07 $1 $0 +31%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 07 $1 +$1 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 07 $1 +$1 +95%
XRP Up or Down - June 7, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 07 $1 +$2 +144%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $1 54m
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $1 54m
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $1 7h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $1 26h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $1 26h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $1 26h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $1 26h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $1 26h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $1 26h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 14? SELL Yes 99¢ $1 41h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 26°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $1 43h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 26°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $1 43h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $1 43h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $1 43h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $1 45h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 14? BUY Yes 92¢ $1 45h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 14? SELL No 99¢ $1 45h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 14? SELL No 93¢ $2 46h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 14? SELL No 96¢ $4 46h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 14? BUY No 96¢ $1 46h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 14? BUY No 97¢ $1 46h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 14? BUY No 98¢ $1 46h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 14? BUY No 90¢ $1 46h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 14? BUY No 92¢ $1 46h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 14? BUY No 92¢ $1 46h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 13? BUY No 99¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 13? BUY No 99¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.39 · official $4.41 (match) · 935 history records