Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T04:43:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
E1 0xe198…7ece crypto 11 markets active 1h ago coverage 542d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$44 (+7%) realized +$44 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +4% what you keep after slip
Net edge+4%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate80%8W / 2L
Drawdown20%max
Avg bet$61per market
Trades / day0.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$29now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 54% $0
sports 27% +$43
world 19% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)+4.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +1.1% -8.5% 100% 0% -8.5%
≤30d 3 +1.1% -8.5% 100% 0% -8.5%
≤90d 3 +1.1% -8.5% 100% 0% -8.5%
all 10 +15.0% +4.1% 80% 20% -3.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +4.1% 20% -3.2%
10% -5.9% 10% -12.5%
15% -15.0% 10% -21.0%
20% -23.3% 10% -28.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 65% · top 2 96% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% too few recent
Fragile wins
75% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +15% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$6 · ×1.16 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×4.64 per $1 lost it wins $4.64
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

542d coverage
Net worth$29
Realized+$44
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses8 / 2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)10 / 11
History coverage542d
Avg bet$61
Trades / day0.0
Drawdown20%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 23? No 100¢ 100¢ $29 $29 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 23 $28 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 23 $28 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 23 $28 $0 +1%
Rockets vs. Pistons Jan 23 $11 −$11 -100%
Grizzlies vs. Thunder Apr 23 $160 +$18 +11%
Solana above $240 on February 7? Apr 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Rockets vs. Nets Feb 05 $11 +$37 +335%
Bitcoin above $95,000 on January 17? Jan 25 $125 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above $97,000 on January 10? Jan 17 $125 $0 +0%
Will Ukraine hold Kursk through 2024? Jan 10 $124 +$1 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $29 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $28 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $28 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $28 1h
Rockets vs. Pistons BUY Pistons 61¢ $11 150d
Grizzlies vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 90¢ $160 426d
Solana above $240 on February 7? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 500d
Rockets vs. Nets BUY Nets 23¢ $11 503d
Bitcoin above $95,000 on January 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $125 521d
Bitcoin above $97,000 on January 10? BUY No 100¢ $125 528d
Will Ukraine hold Kursk through 2024? BUY Yes 99¢ $124 542d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.39 · official $29.39 (match) · 20 history records