Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T01:56:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
E1 0xe19c…6c2c other 12 markets active 2h ago coverage 5d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$111 (+12%) realized +$32 · open +$79
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -32% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%1W / 1L
Drawdown23%max
Avg bet$78per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit42%portable
Net worth$819now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 83% +$121
sports 15% +$5
culture 1% −$2
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-38.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -32.1% -38.5% 50% 50% +15.2%
≤30d 2 -32.1% -38.5% 50% 50% +15.2%
≤90d 2 -32.1% -38.5% 50% 50% +15.2%
all 2 -32.1% -38.5% 50% 50% +15.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -38.5% 50% +15.2%
10% -44.4% 50% +4.2%
15% -49.8% 50% -5.9%
20% -54.7% 0% -15.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +27% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -32% · $-wt +27% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$54 vs −$10 · ×5.36 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.36 per $1 lost it wins $5.36
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$819
Realized+$32
Unrealized+$79
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses1 / 1
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions8
Markets (closed)2 / 12
History coverage5d
Avg bet$78
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown23%
Kalshi-fit42%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 2 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 73¢ 86¢ $150 $178 +$28 (+18%)
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 86¢ 100¢ $150 $174 +$24 (+16%)
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 91¢ 94¢ $150 $154 +$4 (+3%)
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Under 85¢ 98¢ $100 $115 +$15 (+15%)
World Cup: Scoreless Team? Yes 86¢ 85¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will there be 20+ VAR decisions overturned during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 84¢ 99¢ $60 $70 +$10 (+17%)
Will MrBeast get married by December 31? No 36¢ 38¢ $20 $22 +$2 (+8%)
Will Drake be the top Spotify artist for 2026? Yes 9¢ 7¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $151 +$54 +36%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $819.46 · official $824.47 (match) · 14 history records