Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T13:47:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E1 0xe19c…f1fc sports 21 markets active 0h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$18 (-1%) realized −$8 · open −$10
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate58%11W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$80per market
Trades / day5.2pace
Fees−$18est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$147now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 94% +$91
other 6% −$105
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)-6.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +3.9% -6.0% 58% 58% -9.8%
≤30d 19 +3.9% -6.0% 58% 58% -9.8%
≤90d 19 +3.9% -6.0% 58% 58% -9.8%
all 19 +3.9% -6.0% 58% 58% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.0% 58% -9.8%
10% -15.0% 47% -18.4%
15% -23.2% 37% -26.3%
20% -30.7% 32% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 37% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +30% → late -19% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$42 vs −$59 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$147
Realized−$8
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses11 / 8
Est. fees paid−$18
Open positions2
Markets (closed)19 / 21
History coverage7d
Avg bet$80
Trades / day5.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 19 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Francisco Comesana vs Alejandro Moro Canas Francisco Comesana 84¢ 68¢ $100 $80 −$20 (-20%)
Bad Homburg Open: Solana Sierra vs Qinwen Zheng Solana Sierra 32¢ 38¢ $57 $67 +$10 (+17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Hannah Klugman vs Tereza Valentova Jun 22 $131 +$28 +21%
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 21 $36 −$36 -100%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics: O/U 11.5 Jun 21 $119 +$62 +52%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 21 $191 +$24 +13%
Bad Homburg Open: Naomi Osaka vs Magdalena Frech Jun 21 $101 −$7 -7%
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers Jun 21 $101 +$34 +34%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $88 −$85 -97%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $99 +$88 +89%
Mallorca Championships: Mariano Navone vs Lorenzo Sonego Jun 21 $51 −$50 -99%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Marcos Giron vs Jan Choinski Jun 21 $50 −$50 -99%
Bad Homburg Open: Katie Boulter vs Leylah Fernandez Jun 21 $68 +$84 +123%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Marcos Giron vs Charles Broom Jun 20 $48 +$20 +41%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Emiliana Arango vs Alycia Parks Jun 20 $6 +$4 +67%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Petra Marcinko vs Simona Waltert Jun 20 $48 +$46 +97%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $73 −$25 -34%
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 19 $50 +$17 +34%
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Daniil Medvedev Jun 19 $41 +$57 +139%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $105 −$105 -100%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $111 −$110 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bad Homburg Open: Solana Sierra vs Qinwen Zheng BUY Solana Sierra 32¢ $58 12m
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Hannah Klugman vs Tereza Valentova SELL Tereza Valentova 100¢ $158 33m
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Francisco Comesana vs Alejandro Moro Can BUY Francisco Comesana 84¢ $100 1h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Hannah Klugman vs Tereza Valentova BUY Tereza Valentova 82¢ $131 2h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics: O/U 11.5 SELL Over 100¢ $181 15h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics: O/U 11.5 BUY Over 65¢ $119 15h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies SELL Pittsburgh Pirates 100¢ $215 15h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 88¢ $146 15h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 91¢ $45 15h
Bad Homburg Open: Naomi Osaka vs Magdalena Frech SELL Naomi Osaka 70¢ $94 15h
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 29¢ $36 16h
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers SELL Texas Rangers 100¢ $135 16h
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers BUY Texas Rangers 74¢ $101 17h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 SELL Over $3 17h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $88 18h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $187 20h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 52¢ $99 21h
Bad Homburg Open: Naomi Osaka vs Magdalena Frech BUY Naomi Osaka 74¢ $101 21h
Mallorca Championships: Mariano Navone vs Lorenzo Sonego BUY Mariano Navone 55¢ $51 22h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Marcos Giron vs Jan Choinski BUY Marcos Giron 68¢ $50 22h
Bad Homburg Open: Katie Boulter vs Leylah Fernandez SELL Leylah Fernandez 100¢ $152 23h
Bad Homburg Open: Katie Boulter vs Leylah Fernandez BUY Leylah Fernandez 44¢ $68 23h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Marcos Giron vs Charles Broom SELL Marcos Giron 100¢ $67 42h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Marcos Giron vs Charles Broom BUY Marcos Giron 70¢ $48 43h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Emiliana Arango vs Alycia Parks SELL Emiliana Arango 100¢ $10 43h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Petra Marcinko vs Simona Waltert SELL Petra Marcinko 100¢ $94 43h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Emiliana Arango vs Alycia Parks BUY Emiliana Arango 59¢ $6 43h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Petra Marcinko vs Simona Waltert BUY Petra Marcinko 50¢ $48 44h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 30¢ $48 2d
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $73 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $147.15 · official $145.37 · 37 history records