Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:46:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E1 0xe1a4…a4ba sports 785 markets active 0h ago coverage 19d ⚠
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 18d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (187 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)
Total PnL +$5,661 (+915%) realized +$5,439 · open +$222
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +78% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +37% what you keep after slip
Net edge+37%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate37%291W / 494L
Drawdown44%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day186.9pace
Fees−$18est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$241now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 19d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 54% +$432
other 20% +$127
weather 10% +$19
politics 5% +$16
crypto 4% +$18
world 3% +$6
culture 2% +$31
tech 2% +$7
finance 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (187 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)+61.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 509 +55.4% +40.6% 25% 25% -5.9%
≤30d 785 +78.3% +61.4% 37% 35% +26.0%
≤90d 785 +78.3% +61.4% 37% 35% +26.0%
all 785 +78.3% +61.4% 37% 35% +26.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover186.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +61.4% 35% +26.0%
10% ← realistic here +45.9% 33% +14.0%
15% +31.8% 31% +2.9%
20% +18.9% 29% -7.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +82% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +78% · $-wt +82% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +126% → late +31% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$1 · ×4.32 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.69 per $1 lost it wins $2.69
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

19d coverage
Net worth$241
Realized+$5,439
Unrealized+$222
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses291 / 494
Est. fees paid−$18
Open positions54
Markets (closed)785 / 785
History coverage19d ⚠
Avg bet$1
Trades / day186.9
Drawdown44%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 54 History 785 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 8.5 Over 1¢ 50¢ $3 $129 +$127 (+4850%)
Spread: DR Congo (-5.5) DR Congo 2¢ 50¢ $3 $75 +$73 (+2813%)
Spread: Lillestrøm SK (-2.5) Lillestrøm SK 1¢ 22¢ $1 $17 +$16 (+1868%)
SC Recife vs. AC Goianiense: O/U 5.5 Over 7¢ 46¢ $1 $5 +$4 (+564%)
Spread: Club Bolívar (-1.5) Club Bolívar 2¢ 50¢ $0 $3 +$2 (+2140%)
Will "Trump" be said 10+ times during the next episode of the Lemonade Stand Podcast? Yes 6¢ 12¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+100%)
Spread: Bamin Real Potosí (-2.5) Bamin Real Potosí 1¢ 50¢ $0 $2 +$1 (+4900%)
Will any AI model reach 1530 Math Arena Score by June 30, 2026? Yes 6¢ 20¢ $0 $1 +$1 (+225%)
Spread: Bamin Real Potosí (-1.5) Bamin Real Potosí 1¢ 50¢ $0 $1 +$1 (+4900%)
Jordan vs. Argentina: Jordan O/U 2.5 Over 3¢ 3¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-25%)
Will Meta (META) close above $580 on June 17? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+25%)
Will FIFA World Cup 2026 be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on June 19? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+72%)
Will "IPO" be said during the next episode of the Lemonade Stand Podcast? No 5¢ 10¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+100%)
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 5.5 Over 8¢ 4¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Spread: Jordan (-1.5) Jordan 2¢ 2¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-19%)
APYX FDV above $800M one day after launch? Yes 4¢ 31¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+675%)
Will Microsoft have the #2 AI model at the end of July 2026? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+159%)
Will Kanye West visit the UK by June 30? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-66%)
New England Revolution vs. Houston Dynamo: O/U 4.5 Over 4¢ 20¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+398%)
Will Jabarie Walker be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Louisiana? Yes 5¢ 7¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+40%)
Will Mistral have the #2 AI model at the end of July 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+130%)
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 16°C on June 17? No 4¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$1 (-89%)
Will Claude by Anthropic be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on June 19? Yes 1¢ 3¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+145%)
Will Tracie Burke be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Louisiana? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Spread: Jordan (-2.5) Jordan 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-86%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 446 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at $7.00-$8.00 on the final day of trading Jun 17 $0 $0 -999%
Exact Score: NK Celje 0 - 0 FC Koper? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin above 77,800 on May 26, 8AM ET? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 23°C on May 14? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
T20 Blast: Worcestershire vs Northamptonshire - Most Sixes Worcestersh Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will 7-Eleven: Rewards & Shopping be #2 Free App in the US Apple App S Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Romano vs. Valle: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Athletic Club vs. Cuiabá EC: Draw at halftime? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on April 5? Jun 17 $0 $0 +26%
Bitcoin above 76,200 on May 25, 6AM ET? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin above 76,200 on April 14, 5AM ET? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: NEC (-1.5) Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Blanch vs. Caniato: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum above 2,425 on April 18, 5PM ET? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 68-69°F on May 3? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Galfi vs. Tomljanovic: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Broady vs. Galarneau: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
HYPE Up or Down - May 12, 6AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $0 $0 -46%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Rebels Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Uzbekistan record a gold medal at the 2026 Winter Olympics? Jun 17 $0 $0 -471%
Chwalinska vs. Monnet: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Set 1 Winner: Dougaz vs Gill Jun 17 $2 −$1 -38%
Belmont Bruins vs. Illinois State Redbirds Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Valorant: Bonk vs Lost Puppies - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
CD Concepción vs. Everton de Viña del Mar: Draw at halftime? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Game 1: Both Teams Slay a Dragon? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) Jun 17 $0 +$1 +5583%
Rottoli vs. Piraino: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Nishikori vs. Kicker: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Spread: SK Poltava (-1.5) Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 29, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 50-51°F on Apr Jun 17 $0 $0 +37%
Hercog vs. Gao: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin above 77,000 on May 25, 6AM ET? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Map 2: Odd/Even Total Kills? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin above 76,400 on May 26, 4PM ET? Jun 17 $0 +$1 +3787%
T20 Kalahari Tournament, Women: Mozambique vs Malawi - Most Sixes Moza Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin above 75,200 on May 26, 4PM ET? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Eshan Malinga win the 2026 IPL purple cap? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Valorant: Eternal Fire vs Team Heretics - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $0 $0 +22%
Minnen vs. Vrancken-Peeters: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Gary Woodland win the 2026 Masters tournament? Jun 17 $0 $0 —%
Gamba Ōsaka vs. Fagiano Okayama: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Malick Fofana: Anytime Goalscorer Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Overwatch: Twisted Minds vs Virtus.pro (BO4) - OCS EMEA Stage 1 Playof Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Sporting Kansas City leading at halftime? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Gamba Ōsaka (-2.5) Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Set 1 Winner: Buse vs Moutet Jun 17 $1 $0 -14%
XRP Up or Down - March 19, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Brazil vs. Haiti: Neither team to score first? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 13m
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 1¢ $3 34m
Dow Jones (DJIA) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Up 6¢ $0 34m
Spread: DR Congo (-5.5) BUY DR Congo 1¢ $0 34m
Spread: DR Congo (-5.5) BUY DR Congo 2¢ $2 34m
Will Meta (META) close above $580 on June 17? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 46m
Will Meta (META) close above $580 on June 17? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 46m
Will "IPO" be said during the next episode of the Lemonade Stand Podca BUY No 5¢ $0 1h
Will "IPO" be said during the next episode of the Lemonade Stand Podca SELL Yes 83¢ $10 1h
Will Meta (META) close above $570 on June 17? SELL No 6¢ $1 1h
Will Mike Rogers win the Republican Primary for U.S. Senate in Michiga SELL No 3¢ $0 2h
Will "IPO" be said during the next episode of the Lemonade Stand Podca BUY Yes 6¢ $1 2h
Will "Trump" be said 10+ times during the next episode of the Lemonade BUY Yes 6¢ $1 2h
Will Meta (META) close above $590 on June 17? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET SELL Down 4¢ $0 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET SELL Down 4¢ $0 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $0 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $0 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $0 3h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Scotland 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 3¢ $0 4h
Will Meta (META) close above $570 on June 17? BUY No 0¢ $0 5h
Will Zendaya and Tom Holland get married by December 31? SELL No 15¢ $6 5h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 39°C on June 19? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 8h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 37°C on June 19? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 8h
Will Claude by Anthropic be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on J BUY Yes 1¢ $0 8h
Will Zendaya and Tom Holland get married by December 31? SELL No 21¢ $0 8h
Will Zendaya and Tom Holland get married by December 31? SELL No 22¢ $1 8h
Will Zendaya and Tom Holland get married by December 31? SELL No 22¢ $1 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $240.57 · official $240.76 (match) · 3500 history records