Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T15:58:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
E1 0xe1a6…d584 other 1143 markets active 3h ago coverage 60d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 60d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$44,398 (+4%) realized +$43,481 · open +$917
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate57%623W / 478L
Whale WR52%big bets
Drawdown91%max
Avg bet$878per market
Trades / day37.1pace
Fees−$6,083est.
Kalshi-fit49%portable
Net worth$28,791now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4,130
7 days+$623
14 days+$991
30 days−$217,258
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 53% +$47,643
sports 46% −$5,699
world 1% +$1,424
crypto 0% +$514
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-3.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 49 +30.0% +17.6% 57% 51% -8.9%
≤30d 666 -35.3% -41.5% 33% 32% -45.4%
≤90d 1101 +7.2% -3.0% 57% 55% -5.5%
all 1101 +7.2% -3.0% 57% 55% -5.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover37.1 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -3.0% 55% -5.5%
10% -12.3% 53% -14.6%
15% ← realistic here -20.8% 47% -22.8%
20% -28.6% 38% -30.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 52% (≥$1,260) neutral
Persistence
early +74% → late -60% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$630 vs −$734 · ×0.86 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.12 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

60d coverage
Net worth$28,791
Realized+$43,481
Unrealized+$917
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses623 / 478
Whale WR (big bets)52%
Est. fees paid−$6,083
Open positions42
Markets (closed)1101 / 1143
History coverage60d ⚠
Avg bet$878
Trades / day37.1
Drawdown91%
Kalshi-fit49%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 42 History 1101 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Over 56¢ 54¢ $2,352 $2,247 −$105 (-4%)
Will Turkiye reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 55¢ 78¢ $1,110 $1,577 +$467 (+42%)
Will Paraguay win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 82¢ 98¢ $1,148 $1,374 +$226 (+20%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? No 33¢ 32¢ $1,386 $1,365 −$21 (-2%)
Will Tunisia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 62¢ 92¢ $868 $1,295 +$427 (+49%)
Will Iran win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 87¢ 92¢ $1,219 $1,289 +$69 (+6%)
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 65¢ 92¢ $910 $1,281 +$371 (+41%)
Will Senegal win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 87¢ 90¢ $1,218 $1,253 +$35 (+3%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 89¢ 89¢ $1,252 $1,250 −$2 (-0%)
Will Scotland win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 92¢ 89¢ $1,286 $1,246 −$40 (-3%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 87¢ 84¢ $1,218 $1,183 −$35 (-3%)
Will Sweden win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 85¢ 72¢ $1,190 $1,001 −$189 (-16%)
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 79¢ 70¢ $1,106 $987 −$119 (-11%)
Will Norway win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 73¢ 76¢ $944 $976 +$32 (+3%)
Will Uzbekistan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 67¢ 69¢ $938 $973 +$35 (+4%)
Spread: France (-1.5) Senegal 60¢ 60¢ $930 $922 −$8 (-1%)
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 41¢ 54¢ $574 $749 +$175 (+30%)
Will Saudi Arabia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 64¢ 58¢ $807 $737 −$69 (-9%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? No 29¢ 32¢ $611 $664 +$53 (+9%)
Will Cape Verde advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 30¢ 46¢ $420 $651 +$231 (+55%)
Will Mexico reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 46¢ 40¢ $644 $560 −$84 (-13%)
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 30¢ 38¢ $440 $550 +$110 (+25%)
Will Colombia reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 54¢ 52¢ $540 $525 −$15 (-3%)
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 37¢ 38¢ $518 $525 +$7 (+1%)
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 59¢ 32¢ $826 $441 −$385 (-47%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 34 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $2,016 +$2,184 +108%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $3,421 +$779 +23%
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) Jun 16 $1,242 +$436 +35%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1,596 +$2,604 +163%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 16 $4,032 +$168 +4%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $4,190 +$10 +0%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $388 +$3,812 +982%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $802 +$904 +113%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $948 +$467 +49%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $1,008 +$3,192 +317%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $3,597 −$333 -9%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $3,256 −$3,234 -99%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $1,094 −$1,094 -100%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $3,380 +$820 +24%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 15 $2,050 −$2,050 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1,139 +$421 +37%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $3,049 −$3,024 -99%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $1,963 −$1,932 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2,132 −$2,100 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1,837 +$2,363 +129%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $3,066 +$1,134 +37%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $3,276 +$924 +28%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $3,528 +$672 +19%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 14 $4,175 +$25 +1%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1,560 +$342 +22%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1,795 +$2,405 +134%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $1,376 −$1,370 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $714 +$3,486 +488%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $4,258 −$58 -1%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $1,752 +$2,448 +140%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $3,024 −$3,024 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $1,890 −$1,890 -100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $2,898 +$1,302 +45%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $704 +$826 +117%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $3,380 +$820 +24%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 12 $1,302 −$1,302 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1,053 −$1,053 -100%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $2,550 −$2,520 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1,329 −$1,302 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $2,717 −$2,688 -99%
England vs. Costa Rica: O/U 3.5 Jun 10 $1,239 +$861 +70%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $2,352 −$2,352 -100%
Will DR Congo vs. Chile end in a draw? Jun 09 $469 +$231 +49%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 09 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $59 −$59 -100%
DR Congo vs. Chile: O/U 1.5 Jun 09 $1,365 +$735 +54%
DR Congo vs. Chile: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $2 +$3 +170%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $2,352 −$2,352 -100%
Will China PR win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $333 +$299 +90%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 75¢ $21 3h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 33¢ $1,386 12h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY Senegal 60¢ $930 12h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 29¢ $408 16h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 29¢ $2 16h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 29¢ $1 16h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 29¢ $2 16h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 29¢ $18 16h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 29¢ $4 16h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 29¢ $40 16h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 29¢ $1 16h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 29¢ $17 16h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 29¢ $14 16h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 29¢ $3 16h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 29¢ $20 16h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 29¢ $2 16h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 29¢ $2 16h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 29¢ $4 16h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 29¢ $4 16h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 29¢ $0 16h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 29¢ $61 16h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 29¢ $2 16h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 29¢ $4 16h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 29¢ $1 16h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 56¢ $2,352 17h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 38¢ $1,596 18h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 58¢ $2,436 20h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 49¢ $2,058 21h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY No 77¢ $3,256 22h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $2,132 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28,790.69 · official $28,767.35 (match) · 3500 history records