Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T05:55:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

E1 0xe1a7…0984 crypto 11 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover

Total PnL −$5 (-20%) realized −$5 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip

Net edge-31%after slip

Net WR27%break-even

Win rate73%8W / 3L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$2per market

Trades / day11.0pace

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +27%

net ROI/market (all)-25.0%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	11	-17.1%	-25.0%	73%	27%	-21.1%
≤30d	11	-17.1%	-25.0%	73%	27%	-21.1%
≤90d	11	-17.1%	-25.0%	73%	27%	-21.1%
all	11	-17.1%	-25.0%	73%	27%	-21.1%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover11.0 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-25.0%	27%	-21.1%
10%	-32.2%	18%	-28.7%
15%	-38.7%	9%	-35.6%
20%	-44.7%	9%	-41.9%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 40% · top 2 70% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

62% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -17% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.17 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.46 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized−$5

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)73%

Wins / losses8 / 3

Open positions0

Markets (closed)11 / 11

History coverage1d

Avg bet$2

Trades / day11.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 11 Trades

no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET	Jun 15	$2	$0	+23%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET	Jun 15	$5	+$1	+16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET	Jun 15	$2	$0	+4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET	Jun 14	$2	−$2	-99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET	Jun 14	$2	−$2	-100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET	Jun 14	$2	$0	+1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET	Jun 14	$2	−$2	-99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET	Jun 14	$2	$0	+3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET	Jun 14	$2	$0	+9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET	Jun 14	$2	+$1	+54%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET	Jun 14	$2	$0	+1%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET	BUY Down	80¢	$2	52m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET	BUY Down	85¢	$5	1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET	BUY Down	96¢	$2	1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET	BUY Down	91¢	$2	16h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET	BUY Up	96¢	$2	16h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET	BUY Up	99¢	$2	16h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET	BUY Up	92¢	$2	16h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET	BUY Up	97¢	$2	16h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET	BUY Down	91¢	$2	17h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET	BUY Down	63¢	$2	17h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET	BUY Down	99¢	$2	17h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 21 history records