Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:07:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
E1 0xe1a8…9f5b crypto 37 markets active 0h ago coverage 105d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$22 (+2%) realized +$22 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip
Net edge-1%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate53%18W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$88now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$32
7 days+$3
14 days+$3
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 57% +$3
other 42% $0
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-0.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 +11.2% +0.6% 58% 55% -8.9%
≤30d 32 +10.8% +0.2% 56% 53% -9.1%
≤90d 33 +10.3% -0.2% 55% 52% -9.2%
all 34 +9.9% -0.6% 53% 50% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.6% 50% -9.2%
10% -10.1% 44% -17.9%
15% -18.8% 38% -25.8%
20% -26.7% 35% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +24% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$5 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

105d coverage
Net worth$88
Realized+$22
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses18 / 16
Open positions3
Markets (closed)34 / 37
History coverage105d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will stablecoins hit $500B before 2027? No 79¢ 90¢ $43 $49 +$6 (+13%)
Pacifica FDV above $300M one day after launch? No 90¢ 79¢ $44 $39 −$5 (-12%)
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? Yes 49¢ 50¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 17 $9 +$7 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 17 $19 +$11 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 17 $28 −$28 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 17 $7 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 17 $44 −$4 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 17 $220 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 16 $49 −$7 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 12 $9 +$4 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$2 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 12 $12 +$6 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 12 $8 +$5 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 12 $11 +$4 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 12 $9 +$12 +136%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 12 $14 −$8 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 12 $6 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 12 $11 −$5 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$2 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 12 $20 +$5 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$3 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$7 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$3 +198%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$3 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 12 $9 +$4 +51%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Carabao Cup? Jun 03 $87 −$1 -1%
Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI? Apr 29 $7 $0 -5%
Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027? Mar 14 $1 $0 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $6 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $3 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $2 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $8 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $9 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $10 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $6 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $3 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $2 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $3 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $17 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $3 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $24 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $74 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $49 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $33 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $28 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $7 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $18 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $2 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $2 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $2 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $2 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $2 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $2 19h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $88.12 · official $88.08 (match) · 222 history records