Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T18:48:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
E1 0xe1b0…4758 sports 29 markets active 2h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$18 (+2%) realized +$3 · open +$15
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate44%12W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$38per market
Trades / day6.4pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$65now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 59% +$107
other 41% −$91
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-8.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 +1.0% -8.6% 44% 44% -9.4%
≤30d 27 +1.0% -8.6% 44% 44% -9.4%
≤90d 27 +1.0% -8.6% 44% 44% -9.4%
all 27 +1.0% -8.6% 44% 44% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.6% 44% -9.4%
10% -17.4% 44% -18.1%
15% -25.4% 44% -26.0%
20% -32.7% 41% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$31 vs −$25 · ×1.25 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$65
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$15
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses12 / 15
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions2
Markets (closed)27 / 29
History coverage6d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day6.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 27 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Brazil vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Yes 50¢ 100¢ $30 $60 +$30 (+100%)
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals Yes 38¢ 10¢ $20 $5 −$15 (-75%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
South Africa vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score Jun 28 $30 −$30 -98%
Jonathan David: 1+ goals Jun 28 $31 −$30 -98%
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals Jun 28 $41 +$20 +50%
Yoane Wissa: 1+ goals Jun 28 $20 +$38 +188%
Jude Bellingham: 1+ goals Jun 28 $15 +$36 +238%
Luis Díaz: 1+ goals Jun 27 $20 −$20 -98%
Bukayo Saka: 1+ goals Jun 27 $15 −$15 -98%
New Zealand vs. Belgium: Both Teams to Score Jun 27 $71 +$54 +76%
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) Jun 27 $71 −$66 -93%
New Zealand to score first vs. Belgium? Jun 27 $20 −$20 -98%
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 1.5 Jun 27 $72 +$48 +67%
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Jun 26 $10 −$3 -25%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 26 $96 −$25 -26%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $30 −$23 -74%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $137 −$46 -34%
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) Jun 26 $30 −$4 -13%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 25 $20 +$10 +48%
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-2.5) Jun 25 $41 +$30 +73%
Florian Wirtz: 1+ goals Jun 25 $10 −$10 -98%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $30 +$20 +67%
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $30 −$30 -99%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 24 $20 −$12 -59%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $25 +$15 +60%
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $30 +$24 +79%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $31 +$38 +124%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $41 −$40 -99%
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) Jun 24 $51 +$40 +79%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Brazil vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $30 1h
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals BUY Yes 38¢ $20 2h
South Africa vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $30 23h
Jonathan David: 1+ goals BUY Yes 36¢ $31 23h
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals SELL Yes 81¢ $61 39h
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals BUY Yes 52¢ $41 39h
Luis Díaz: 1+ goals BUY Yes 25¢ $20 43h
Yoane Wissa: 1+ goals BUY Yes 34¢ $20 43h
Bukayo Saka: 1+ goals BUY Yes 37¢ $15 46h
Jude Bellingham: 1+ goals BUY Yes 29¢ $15 46h
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) SELL New Zealand $5 2d
New Zealand to score first vs. Belgium? BUY Yes 19¢ $20 2d
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) BUY New Zealand 55¢ $71 2d
New Zealand vs. Belgium: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 56¢ $71 2d
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 59¢ $72 2d
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals SELL Yes 10¢ $8 2d
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY Yes 13¢ $10 2d
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals SELL Yes 42¢ $71 2d
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals BUY Yes 55¢ $96 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 14¢ $8 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 35¢ $91 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 52¢ $30 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 51¢ $137 3d
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) SELL Netherlands 44¢ $26 3d
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) BUY Netherlands 49¢ $30 3d
Florian Wirtz: 1+ goals BUY Yes 23¢ $10 3d
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-2.5) BUY Curaçao 57¢ $41 3d
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Ecuador 67¢ $20 3d
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 51¢ $30 4d
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) SELL Morocco 21¢ $8 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $64.97 · official $66.02 · 50 history records