Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:50:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
E1 0xe1b0…155b weather 414 markets active 1h ago coverage 81d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,159 (+1%) realized +$1,159 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate98%403W / 10L
Whale WR99%big bets
Drawdown6%max
Avg bet$358per market
Trades / day32.9pace
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$59now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$32
7 days+$70
14 days+$97
30 days+$206
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 97% +$1,138
other 3% +$23
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 +1.0% -8.6% 95% 0% -8.4%
≤30d 91 +0.2% -9.3% 95% 0% -8.6%
≤90d 413 +0.1% -9.5% 98% 0% -8.8%
all 413 +0.1% -9.5% 98% 0% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover32.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.5% 0% -8.8%
10% ← realistic here -18.1% 0% -17.5%
15% -26.0% 0% -25.5%
20% -33.3% 0% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 99% (≥$510) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$12 · ×0.27 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×10.76 per $1 lost it wins $10.76
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

81d coverage
Net worth$59
Realized+$1,159
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)98%
Wins / losses403 / 10
Whale WR (big bets)99%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)413 / 414
History coverage81d
Avg bet$358
Trades / day32.9
Drawdown6%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 413 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 17? No 99¢ 100¢ $59 $59 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 17? Jun 17 $471 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 17? Jun 17 $468 +$4 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $225 +$4 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $54 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $344 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $139 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $510 +$4 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 15? Jun 15 $284 +$11 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $21 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 15? Jun 15 $117 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $197 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 15? Jun 15 $200 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $92 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 15? Jun 15 $68 −$4 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $137 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1,136 +$10 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 10? Jun 12 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 10? Jun 12 $70 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on June 10? Jun 12 $196 +$12 +6%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on June 10? Jun 12 $432 +$4 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 10? Jun 10 $386 +$7 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 10? Jun 10 $254 +$8 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 9? Jun 10 $214 +$4 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on June 8? Jun 09 $29 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 22°C on June 8? Jun 09 $36 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 5? Jun 08 $112 +$3 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 5? Jun 08 $197 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 5? Jun 05 $99 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 5? Jun 05 $99 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on June 4? Jun 05 $6 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 38°C on June 4? Jun 05 $9 +$1 +7%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on June 4? Jun 05 $27 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 4? Jun 05 $185 +$2 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on June 4? Jun 05 $103 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 39°C on June 4? Jun 05 $209 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 4? Jun 05 $703 +$3 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C or higher on June 4? Jun 05 $428 +$4 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 4? Jun 04 $113 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on June 3? Jun 04 $21 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on June 3? Jun 04 $198 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 2? Jun 03 $48 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 2? Jun 03 $198 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 2? Jun 03 $572 +$5 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 1? Jun 02 $322 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 1? Jun 02 $486 +$11 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 37°C on June 1? Jun 02 $11 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C on June 1? Jun 02 $99 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C or higher on May 31? Jun 01 $88 +$3 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on May 31? Jun 01 $856 +$25 +3%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on May 28? May 29 $10 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 17? SELL Yes 100¢ $364 45m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 17? SELL Yes 99¢ $110 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 17? BUY Yes 98¢ $52 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 17? BUY Yes 98¢ $9 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 17? BUY Yes 99¢ $411 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $472 6h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $457 8h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $12 8h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $15 8h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $44 8h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $54 27h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 16? BUY Yes 98¢ $50 27h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 16? BUY Yes 98¢ $13 27h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 16? BUY Yes 98¢ $35 27h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 16? SELL Yes 98¢ $7 27h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $514 27h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 16? BUY Yes 98¢ $69 27h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 16? BUY Yes 97¢ $19 27h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 16? BUY Yes 98¢ $39 27h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $510 30h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $323 31h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $21 31h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $139 32h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $19 2d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 15? BUY No 98¢ $0 2d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 15? BUY No 98¢ $0 2d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 15? BUY No 98¢ $0 2d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 15? BUY No 98¢ $0 2d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 15? BUY No 98¢ $0 2d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 15? BUY No 98¢ $0 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $59.14 · official $59.14 (match) · 3028 history records