Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:09:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
E1 0xe1b7…7672 other 22 markets active 14h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,238 (+10%) realized +$1,291 · open −$53
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate55%6W / 5L
Drawdown16%max
Avg bet$562per market
Trades / day9.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit5%portable
Net worth$2,626now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% +$1,147
sports 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-5.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +4.7% -5.2% 55% 55% +4.4%
≤30d 11 +4.7% -5.2% 55% 55% +4.4%
≤90d 11 +4.7% -5.2% 55% 55% +4.4%
all 11 +4.7% -5.2% 55% 55% +4.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.5 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.2% 55% +4.4%
10% ← realistic here -14.3% 36% -5.6%
15% -22.6% 18% -14.7%
20% -30.2% 18% -23.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 63% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +15% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$242 vs −$53 · ×4.59 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.51 per $1 lost it wins $5.51
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$2,626
Realized+$1,291
Unrealized−$53
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses6 / 5
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions9
Markets (closed)11 / 22
History coverage4d
Avg bet$562
Trades / day9.5
Drawdown16%
Kalshi-fit5%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Yes 82¢ 81¢ $1,000 $994 −$6 (-1%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $1,000 $992 −$8 (-1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $500 $504 +$4 (+1%)
Will a player representing France be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 30¢ 26¢ $117 $98 −$19 (-16%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 8¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-23%)
Will Kai Havertz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 5¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-34%)
Will Bruno Fernandes be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $20 $4 −$16 (-81%)
Will Desire Doue be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-78%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $622 −$1 -0%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 19 $505 −$42 -8%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 19 $1,007 −$11 -1%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $253 +$71 +28%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $1,714 +$400 +23%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $407 +$522 +128%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $101 +$53 +52%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 16 $203 −$200 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1,905 +$230 +12%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1,009 +$177 +18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $74 14h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? AN BUY 44¢ $407 14h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? AND BUY 65¢ $1,516 14h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 61¢ $464 14h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 88¢ $537 14h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 76¢ $996 14h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $547 19h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 76¢ $705 19h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $1,011 19h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 82¢ $1,005 19h
Will a player representing France be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FI BUY Yes 30¢ $102 42h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 72¢ $325 42h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 90¢ $2,115 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $929 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 75¢ $302 2d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 65¢ $505 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 48¢ $203 3d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 55¢ $253 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 65¢ $101 3d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 43¢ $407 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 64¢ $505 3d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 3d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 88¢ $2,135 3d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 74¢ $799 3d
Will a player representing France be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FI BUY Yes 33¢ $17 3d
Will Bruno Fernandes be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 3d
Will Desire Doue be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 3d
Will Bruno Fernandes be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 3d
Will Bruno Fernandes be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 3d
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,626.33 · official $4,526.45 · 40 history records