Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T04:41:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E1 0xe1bc…769e politics 187 markets active 1h ago coverage 168d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$15 (-0%) realized −$15 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate12%23W / 164L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$53per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 26% −$8
politics 26% $0
sports 23% −$4
crypto 8% −$3
economics 7% $0
culture 5% −$1
world 2% −$1
finance 2% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -4.6% -13.7% 0% 0% -13.7%
≤30d 3 -1.6% -11.0% 0% 0% -10.2%
≤90d 81 -0.2% -9.7% 12% 0% -9.7%
all 187 -0.2% -9.7% 12% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.33 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.25 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

168d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses23 / 164
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)187 / 187
History coverage168d
Avg bet$53
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 187 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Austria reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $31 −$1 -5%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 08 $78 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $120 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May? May 18 $37 $0 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 25 $84 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April? Apr 24 $37 $0 +1%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 24 $38 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 23 $41 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Apr 22 $128 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April? Apr 22 $30 −$2 -6%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 22 $139 −$1 -0%
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? Apr 21 $122 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 21 $68 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 21 $123 $0 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 20 $151 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Apr 20 $40 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 20 $160 $0 -0%
Will Greece win Eurovision 2026? Apr 20 $168 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 19 $78 $0 +0%
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $69 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 19 $75 $0 -0%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 18 $119 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 18 $127 $0 -0%
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Apr 18 $70 −$1 -1%
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 17 $59 −$1 -1%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 17 $167 −$1 -0%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 17 $33 +$1 +4%
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Apr 16 $76 $0 -1%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 16 $37 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April? Apr 15 $38 $0 +0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Apr 15 $35 $0 -0%
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 Apr 15 $36 $0 +0%
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Apr 14 $79 $0 -0%
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 14 $43 $0 +0%
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 14 $82 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Apr 13 $37 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 13 $69 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Apr 12 $31 $0 -0%
Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 12 $64 $0 -0%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Apr 12 $109 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 12 $41 $0 -0%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 11 $34 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 11 $79 $0 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Apr 11 $37 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 10 $76 $0 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 08 $70 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in April? Apr 08 $85 $0 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Apr 07 $155 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 07 $42 $0 -0%
Will Hideki Matsuyama win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 07 $41 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Austria reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 93¢ $30 1h
Will Austria reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $22 6h
Will Austria reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $10 6h
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 90¢ $38 13d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 90¢ $38 13d
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 95¢ $33 21d
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 95¢ $34 21d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May? SELL No 96¢ $37 34d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May? BUY No 96¢ $32 34d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May? BUY No 96¢ $5 34d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $40 57d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $40 58d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April? SELL No 98¢ $37 58d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April? BUY No 97¢ $22 58d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April? BUY No 97¢ $15 58d
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 97¢ $38 58d
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 97¢ $38 58d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $41 60d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $41 60d
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL No 95¢ $33 60d
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY No 95¢ $33 60d
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April? SELL No 88¢ $28 60d
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April? BUY No 93¢ $30 61d
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 93¢ $30 61d
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 93¢ $30 61d
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 97¢ $39 61d
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 97¢ $39 61d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 94¢ $40 61d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 94¢ $40 61d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $29 61d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 676 history records