Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T14:23:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E1 0xe1bc…420d sports 8 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted! high turnover
Total PnL −$30 (-2%) realized +$404 · open −$434
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -65% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -73% what you keep after slip
Net edge-73%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate20%1W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$195per market
Trades / day29.0pace
Fees−$24est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$418now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 72% −$666
other 28% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-68.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -65.0% -68.3% 20% 20% -68.0%
≤30d 5 -65.0% -68.3% 20% 20% -68.0%
≤90d 5 -65.0% -68.3% 20% 20% -68.0%
all 5 -65.0% -68.3% 20% 20% -68.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover29.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -68.3% 20% -68.0%
10% ← realistic here -71.3% 20% -71.0%
15% -74.1% 0% -73.8%
20% -76.7% 0% -76.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -65% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -65% · $-wt -65% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$29 vs −$68 · ×0.43 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.11 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$418
Realized+$404
Unrealized−$434
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses1 / 4
Est. fees paid−$24
Open positions3
Markets (closed)5 / 8
History coverage1d
Avg bet$195
Trades / day29.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $429 $418 −$11 (-3%)
Wimbledon ATP: Andrey Rublev vs Roman Safiullin Andrey Rublev 52¢ 0¢ $219 $0 −$219 (-100%)
Troyes: Dali Blanch vs Mickael Kaouk Dali Blanch 54¢ 0¢ $205 $0 −$204 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Wimbledon ATP: Emilio Nava vs Ignacio Buse Jun 29 $148 −$145 -98%
Wimbledon WTA: Mananchaya Sawangkaew vs Maja Chwalinska Jun 29 $102 +$29 +29%
Wimbledon WTA: Belinda Bencic vs Mika Stojsavljevic Jun 29 $103 −$100 -98%
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 29 $4 −$2 -54%
Will Fortaleza EC vs. SC Recife end in a draw? Jun 28 $26 −$25 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Wimbledon ATP: Andrey Rublev vs Roman Safiullin BUY Andrey Rublev 38¢ $36 13m
Wimbledon ATP: Andrey Rublev vs Roman Safiullin BUY Andrey Rublev 55¢ $35 14m
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 19¢ $45 40m
Troyes: Dali Blanch vs Mickael Kaouk SELL Dali Blanch 66¢ $246 41m
Wimbledon ATP: Andrey Rublev vs Roman Safiullin BUY Andrey Rublev 60¢ $19 49m
Troyes: Dali Blanch vs Mickael Kaouk BUY Dali Blanch 36¢ $20 52m
Troyes: Dali Blanch vs Mickael Kaouk BUY Dali Blanch 36¢ $41 52m
Wimbledon ATP: Andrey Rublev vs Roman Safiullin BUY Andrey Rublev 56¢ $61 53m
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 19¢ $156 54m
Troyes: Dali Blanch vs Mickael Kaouk BUY Dali Blanch 34¢ $54 58m
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 19¢ $239 1h
Troyes: Dali Blanch vs Mickael Kaouk BUY Dali Blanch 59¢ $35 1h
Troyes: Dali Blanch vs Mickael Kaouk BUY Dali Blanch 65¢ $11 1h
Troyes: Dali Blanch vs Mickael Kaouk BUY Dali Blanch 64¢ $51 1h
Troyes: Dali Blanch vs Mickael Kaouk BUY Dali Blanch 73¢ $202 1h
Wimbledon ATP: Andrey Rublev vs Roman Safiullin BUY Andrey Rublev 54¢ $26 1h
Wimbledon ATP: Andrey Rublev vs Roman Safiullin BUY Andrey Rublev 58¢ $45 1h
Wimbledon ATP: Emilio Nava vs Ignacio Buse BUY Emilio Nava 8¢ $10 1h
Wimbledon WTA: Mananchaya Sawangkaew vs Maja Chwalinska SELL Mananchaya Sawangkaew 61¢ $131 1h
Wimbledon ATP: Emilio Nava vs Ignacio Buse BUY Emilio Nava 47¢ $36 2h
Wimbledon ATP: Andrey Rublev vs Roman Safiullin SELL Roman Safiullin 62¢ $180 2h
Wimbledon WTA: Belinda Bencic vs Mika Stojsavljevic BUY Mika Stojsavljevic 13¢ $103 12h
Wimbledon WTA: Mananchaya Sawangkaew vs Maja Chwalinska BUY Mananchaya Sawangkaew 46¢ $102 12h
Wimbledon ATP: Emilio Nava vs Ignacio Buse BUY Emilio Nava 41¢ $102 12h
Wimbledon ATP: Andrey Rublev vs Roman Safiullin BUY Roman Safiullin 34¢ $102 12h
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox SELL New York Yankees 23¢ $2 13h
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox BUY New York Yankees 48¢ $4 14h
Will Fortaleza EC vs. SC Recife end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 16h
Will Fortaleza EC vs. SC Recife end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $20 16h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $418.11 · official $418.11 (match) · 29 history records