Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T21:14:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E1 0xe1bd…b053 sports 205 markets active 2d ago coverage 12d
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (51 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$93 (+1%) realized +$93 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate34%69W / 136L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day51.3pace
Fees−$78est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$26
7 days−$112
14 days−$153
30 days−$153
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 62% −$107
other 36% −$5
world 2% −$39
tech 0% −$1
economics 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (51 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-16.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 70 -16.0% -24.0% 21% 20% -20.7%
≤30d 205 -8.1% -16.8% 34% 31% -11.6%
≤90d 205 -8.1% -16.8% 34% 31% -11.6%
all 205 -8.1% -16.8% 34% 31% -11.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover51.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.8% 31% -11.6%
10% ← realistic here -24.8% 26% -20.0%
15% -32.0% 20% -27.8%
20% -38.7% 17% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$13 · ×1.79 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$93
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses69 / 136
Est. fees paid−$78
Open positions0
Markets (closed)205 / 205
History coverage12d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day51.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 205 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $25 +$4 +17%
Will New Zealand vs. Belgium end in a draw? Jun 27 $5 −$1 -15%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 27 $23 −$3 -13%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $50 −$14 -29%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 Jun 26 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres Jun 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 0.5 Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres Jun 26 $25 −$25 -100%
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Czechia vs. Mexico: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Portugal leading at halftime? Jun 26 $26 −$26 -100%
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 26 $21 −$21 -100%
Valorant: REBORN vs Misa Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 26 $33 −$33 -100%
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 7.5 Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 26 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 26 $15 −$11 -70%
T20 Series Ireland vs India: Ireland vs India Jun 26 $5 +$47 +970%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $4 $0 +5%
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 26 $1 +$3 +246%
Ecuador vs. Germany: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 25 $2 +$1 +36%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $7 $0 -5%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee Jun 25 $9 −$1 -11%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $5 $0 -1%
Spread: Morocco (-2.5) Jun 25 $23 −$16 -70%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $3 +$2 +63%
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $3 $0 -6%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 24 $5 $0 -7%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 24 $4 $0 -6%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $11 −$1 -9%
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) Jun 24 $9 −$3 -30%
Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins Jun 24 $6 +$6 +99%
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals Jun 24 $3 $0 -6%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $55 −$4 -7%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $10 −$2 -22%
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? Jun 24 $12 −$1 -10%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $30 −$3 -10%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $53 +$22 +42%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $2 +$2 +143%
Panama vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $3 +$2 +66%
Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins Jun 24 $26 +$14 +55%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 48¢ $15 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 100¢ $30 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 28¢ $12 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 83¢ $25 2d
Will New Zealand vs. Belgium end in a draw? SELL Yes 11¢ $4 2d
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) SELL Jordan 37¢ $20 2d
Will New Zealand vs. Belgium end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? SELL No 22¢ $12 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 43¢ $25 3d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 57¢ $24 3d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 58¢ $26 3d
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Jordan 40¢ $12 3d
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Jordan 40¢ $12 3d
T20 Series Ireland vs India: Ireland vs India BUY Ireland 16¢ $1 3d
T20 Series Ireland vs India: Ireland vs India BUY Ireland 14¢ $2 3d
T20 Series Ireland vs India: Ireland vs India BUY Ireland $2 3d
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 51¢ $2 3d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 79¢ $2 3d
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY No 60¢ $3 3d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 20¢ $2 3d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 3d
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) BUY Netherlands 50¢ $1 3d
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $2 3d
Ecuador vs. Germany: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 72¢ $2 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? SELL No 39¢ $7 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 39¢ $1 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 39¢ $1 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 38¢ $2 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 39¢ $2 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 699 history records