trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 15? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | $50 | $50 | +$0 (+0%) |
| Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 14? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | $50 | $50 | +$0 (+0%) |
| Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on May 6? | Yes | 24¢ | 0¢ | $1 | $0 | −$1 (-100%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 13? | Jun 13 | $50 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 12? | Jun 12 | $60 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 10? | Jun 10 | $60 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 9? | Jun 09 | $20 | +$1 | +3% |
| Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 7? | Jun 07 | $20 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C or higher on June 7? | Jun 07 | $31 | +$11 | +36% |
| Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 7? | Jun 07 | $30 | −$1 | -3% |
| Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 7? | Jun 07 | $30 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 7? | Jun 07 | $10 | $0 | +2% |
| Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on May 6? | May 06 | $11 | $0 | -4% |
| Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on May 5? | May 05 | $10 | −$1 | -9% |
| Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 20°C on April 13? | Apr 13 | $4 | $0 | -9% |
| Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 21°C on April 13? | Apr 13 | $1 | $0 | -6% |
| Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 21°C on April 11? | Apr 10 | $1 | $0 | +37% |
| Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 26°C on April 10? | Apr 10 | $1 | $0 | -12% |
| Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on April 10? | Apr 10 | $1 | +$1 | +72% |
| Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 24°C on April 10? | Apr 10 | $24 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 22°C on April 8? | Apr 09 | $1 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 22°C on April 7? | Apr 07 | $9 | −$3 | -40% |
| Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 25°C on April 7? | Apr 07 | $3 | $0 | -7% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 4 | +0.9% | -8.7% | 100% | 0% | -9.0% |
| ≤30d | 9 | +4.4% | -5.5% | 89% | 11% | -6.1% |
| ≤90d | 20 | +1.7% | -8.0% | 60% | 15% | -7.6% |
| all | 20 | +1.7% | -8.0% | 60% | 15% | -7.6% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -8.0% | 15% | -7.6% |
| 10% | -16.8% | 15% | -16.5% |
| 15% | -24.9% | 15% | -24.5% |
| 20% | -32.2% | 5% | -31.9% |