Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T04:17:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
E1 0xe1be…9863 world 7 markets active 2h ago coverage 16d
RISKYcopy with care world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$21 (+1%) realized +$21 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate33%2W / 4L
Drawdown35%max
Avg bet$421per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$453now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 16d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 73% −$11
other 27% +$29
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-8.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.0% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 6 +1.0% -8.6% 33% 0% -8.8%
≤90d 6 +1.0% -8.6% 33% 0% -8.8%
all 6 +1.0% -8.6% 33% 0% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.6% 0% -8.8%
10% -17.4% 0% -17.6%
15% -25.4% 0% -25.5%
20% -32.7% 0% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$4 · ×4.05 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.7 per $1 lost it wins $2.7
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$453
Realized+$21
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses2 / 4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)6 / 7
History coverage16d
Avg bet$421
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown35%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Lai Ching-te out as President of Taiwan by December 31, 2026? No 95¢ 95¢ $453 $453 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by September 30 2026? Jun 25 $451 $0 +0%
Will Greenland vote for independence in 2026? Jun 25 $456 $0 -0%
Will Russia enter Krasnoiarske by July 31? Jun 19 $440 $0 +0%
Will Egypt sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding? Jun 19 $451 −$10 -2%
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $350 +$30 +8%
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $347 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $453.15 · official $453.15 (match) · 16 history records