Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T00:47:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
E1 0xe1be…76ee other 207 markets active 0h ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$231 (+11%) realized +$234 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate30%55W / 131L
Drawdown27%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day24.3pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit25%portable
Net worth$59now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$350
7 days+$427
14 days+$480
30 days+$480
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 66% +$347
sports 28% +$65
crypto 5% +$65
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)+6.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 158 +22.7% +11.0% 26% 26% +21.4%
≤30d 186 +18.1% +6.9% 30% 30% +15.0%
≤90d 186 +18.1% +6.9% 30% 30% +15.0%
all 186 +18.1% +6.9% 30% 30% +15.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +6.9% 30% +15.0%
10% ← realistic here -3.4% 25% +4.0%
15% -12.7% 24% -6.1%
20% -21.3% 20% -15.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +27% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +18% · $-wt +27% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late +27% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$6 · ×3.9 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.64 per $1 lost it wins $1.64
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$59
Realized+$234
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses55 / 131
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions8
Markets (closed)186 / 207
History coverage10d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day24.3
Drawdown27%
Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 186 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 0 Morocco? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $15 $14 −$1 (-4%)
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 1 Morocco? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $15 $14 −$1 (-6%)
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Morocco? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $15 $14 −$1 (-7%)
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Morocco? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-5%)
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 0 Morocco? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-6%)
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Morocco? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 0 Morocco? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 2 Morocco? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 119 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 AND Spread: Brazil (-2.5) AND Brazil vs. Jun 30 $100 +$43 +42%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 2 Paraguay? Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 29 $5 +$50 +980%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? AND Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Japan? Jun 29 $10 +$9 +88%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $20 +$43 +212%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Japan? Jun 29 $15 +$92 +600%
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 29 $5 +$1 +26%
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 2 Japan? Jun 29 $1 +$2 +165%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Japan? Jun 29 $15 −$15 -97%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 29 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Japan? Jun 29 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 2 Japan? Jun 29 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 1 Japan? Jun 29 $12 −$12 -98%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 0 Japan? Jun 29 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 1 Japan? Jun 29 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 0 Japan? Jun 29 $10 −$10 -97%
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance AND Spread: Canada (-2.5) Jun 29 $30 +$11 +36%
Spread: South Africa (-1.5) AND South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advan Jun 29 $30 +$11 +36%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Jun 29 $20 +$17 +83%
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 1 Canada? Jun 29 $10 +$59 +573%
Exact Score: South Africa 1 - 3 Canada? Jun 28 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: South Africa 1 - 2 Canada? Jun 28 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 2 Canada? Jun 28 $10 −$10 -97%
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 28 $3 −$3 -98%
Exact Score: South Africa 2 - 1 Canada? Jun 28 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: South Africa 1 - 0 Canada? Jun 28 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? AND Will England win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $5 +$6 +116%
Spread: Uzbekistan (-1.5) AND Spread: Ghana (-1.5) AND Will Argentina Jun 28 $29 +$11 +38%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? AND Will England win on 2026-06-27? A Jun 28 $20 +$25 +123%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $5 +$5 +93%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? AND Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? A Jun 28 $20 +$54 +270%
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 3 Argentina? Jun 28 $2 +$27 +1290%
Exact Score: DR Congo 3 - 1 Uzbekistan? Jun 28 $1 +$10 +982%
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? Jun 28 $5 +$15 +291%
Exact Score: Colombia 2 - 1 Portugal? Jun 28 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Colombia 0 - 2 Portugal? Jun 28 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Colombia 0 - 0 Portugal? Jun 28 $10 +$9 +89%
Exact Score: Colombia 2 - 0 Portugal? Jun 28 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Croatia 2 - 1 Ghana? Jun 27 $2 +$18 +874%
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 2 England? Jun 27 $5 +$31 +596%
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 2 Argentina? Jun 27 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 1 Argentina? Jun 27 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Jordan 0 - 2 Argentina? Jun 27 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Jordan 0 - 1 Argentina? Jun 27 $5 −$5 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 0m
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 0m
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 0 Morocco? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 0m
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 0 Morocco? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 0m
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 0 Morocco? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 1m
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Team to Advance AND Spread: Morocco (-2.5) BUY 59¢ $30 2m
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) AND Netherlands vs. Morocco: O/U 0.5 BUY 88¢ $20 4m
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 26m
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 0 Morocco? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 26m
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 32m
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 33m
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 2 Morocco? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 33m
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 0 Morocco? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 33m
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 34m
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Paraguay? SELL Yes 100¢ $55 1h
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 30¢ $5 6h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $6 6h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 79¢ $5 6h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 6h
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 2 Japan? SELL Yes 7¢ $3 7h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 55¢ $10 7h
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Japan? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 7h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 AND Spread: Japan (-1.5) AND Germany vs. Par BUY 83¢ $50 7h
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 AND Spread: Brazil (-2.5) AND Brazil vs. BUY 70¢ $50 9h
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 AND Spread: Brazil (-2.5) AND Brazil vs. BUY 70¢ $50 10h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? AND Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Japan? BUY 53¢ $10 11h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 AND Spread: Brazil (-4.5) AND Will Germany w BUY 69¢ $50 11h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) AND Will Netherlands vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY 4¢ $5 15h
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 16h
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Paraguay? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 16h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $58.77 · official $107.83 · 307 history records