Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T12:41:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E1 0xe1c0…ecf1 sports 12 markets active 2h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sampleP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,774 (-19%) realized −$1,950 · open −$824
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate44%4W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,246per market
Trades / day12.0pace
Fees−$191est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$2,224now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 83% −$5,696
other 17% −$226
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-4.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +5.4% -4.6% 44% 44% -48.8%
≤30d 9 +5.4% -4.6% 44% 44% -48.8%
≤90d 9 +5.4% -4.6% 44% 44% -48.8%
all 9 +5.4% -4.6% 44% 44% -48.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.0 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -4.6% 44% -48.8%
10% ← realistic here -13.7% 44% -53.7%
15% -22.1% 44% -58.2%
20% -29.7% 33% -62.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 62% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -43% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt -43% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$522 vs −$1,437 · ×0.36 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.29 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$2,224
Realized−$1,950
Unrealized−$824
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses4 / 5
Est. fees paid−$191
Open positions3
Markets (closed)9 / 12
History coverage2d
Avg bet$1,246
Trades / day12.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Figueira Da Foz: Alina Korneeva vs Martyna Kubka Martyna Kubka 26¢ 60¢ $753 $1,722 +$969 (+129%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $495 $478 −$16 (-3%)
ITF Ystad: Valentina Ivanov vs Isabel Skoog Isabel Skoog 35¢ 0¢ $1,800 $23 −$1,777 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Brescia: Miriam Bulgaru vs Ane Mintegi Del Olmo Jun 18 $217 −$211 -97%
ITF Zhengzhou: Junhan Zhang vs Ekaterina Yashina Jun 18 $710 +$641 +90%
ITF Zhengzhou: Chenting Zhu vs Jia-Jing Lu Jun 18 $1,313 +$652 +50%
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz Jun 17 $1,865 −$1,835 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2,069 −$209 -10%
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala Jun 17 $4,047 −$3,996 -99%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $948 −$934 -98%
Asuncion 2: Joaquin Aguilar vs Gustavo Almeida Jun 17 $520 +$430 +83%
Asuncion 2: Gonzalo Villanueva vs Juan Bautista Torres Jun 16 $154 +$366 +237%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Figueira Da Foz: Alina Korneeva vs Martyna Kubka BUY Martyna Kubka 21¢ $193 1h
Figueira Da Foz: Alina Korneeva vs Martyna Kubka BUY Martyna Kubka 29¢ $300 1h
Brescia: Miriam Bulgaru vs Ane Mintegi Del Olmo BUY Miriam Bulgaru 5¢ $217 1h
Figueira Da Foz: Alina Korneeva vs Martyna Kubka BUY Martyna Kubka 29¢ $276 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 15¢ $508 3h
ITF Ystad: Valentina Ivanov vs Isabel Skoog BUY Isabel Skoog 37¢ $509 3h
ITF Ystad: Valentina Ivanov vs Isabel Skoog BUY Isabel Skoog 32¢ $510 3h
ITF Ystad: Valentina Ivanov vs Isabel Skoog BUY Isabel Skoog 28¢ $306 3h
ITF Ystad: Valentina Ivanov vs Isabel Skoog BUY Isabel Skoog 43¢ $509 3h
ITF Zhengzhou: Chenting Zhu vs Jia-Jing Lu BUY Chenting Zhu 66¢ $1,313 6h
ITF Zhengzhou: Junhan Zhang vs Ekaterina Yashina BUY Junhan Zhang 52¢ $710 6h
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz BUY Zizou Bergs 46¢ $1,865 25h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 17¢ $1,859 25h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 18¢ $2,069 26h
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala BUY Donna Vekic 57¢ $4,047 26h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 50¢ $948 31h
Asuncion 2: Joaquin Aguilar vs Gustavo Almeida BUY Joaquin Aguilar 54¢ $520 37h
Asuncion 2: Gonzalo Villanueva vs Juan Bautista Torres SELL Gonzalo Villanueva 66¢ $520 37h
Asuncion 2: Gonzalo Villanueva vs Juan Bautista Torres BUY Gonzalo Villanueva 19¢ $154 39h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,224.04 · official $2,224.04 (match) · 22 history records