Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T05:21:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E1 0xe1c3…9506 crypto 27 markets active 8h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$89 (-35%) realized −$89 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -29% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -45% what you keep after slip
Net edge-45%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate33%9W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day32.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 53% −$26
other 30% −$37
sports 16% −$32
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-35.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 -29.0% -35.8% 33% 26% -43.7%
≤30d 27 -29.0% -35.8% 33% 26% -43.7%
≤90d 27 -29.0% -35.8% 33% 26% -43.7%
all 27 -29.0% -35.8% 33% 26% -43.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover32.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -35.8% 26% -43.7%
10% ← realistic here -41.9% 22% -49.1%
15% -47.5% 22% -54.0%
20% -52.7% 22% -58.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 59% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -38% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -29% · $-wt -38% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late -40% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$9 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.43 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$89
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses9 / 18
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)27 / 27
History coverage1d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day32.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 27 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 24 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 24 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 24 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 24 $5 +$8 +152%
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 0 Canada? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 24 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 24 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 24 $5 +$9 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 24 $10 −$5 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 24 $10 +$28 +272%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 24 $5 +$7 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 24 $10 −$2 -19%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Canada? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -98%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 24 $26 −$26 -100%
DR Congo to score first vs. Colombia? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $5 +$4 +79%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $25 +$14 +54%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $26 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $4 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $5 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $5 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $5 8h
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 0 Canada? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $5 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $5 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $5 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $5 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $5 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $5 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $5 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $5 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $5 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $5 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $5 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $5 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET SELL Up 81¢ $8 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 14h
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Canada? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 14h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 14h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 100¢ $39 25h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY No 55¢ $5 27h
DR Congo to score first vs. Colombia? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 27h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $25 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 53 history records