Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T20:36:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E1 0xe1c8…b38e world 28 markets active 1h ago coverage 377d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$7 (-2%) realized −$7 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate29%8W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$6
14 days−$6
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 55% −$6
other 22% −$1
politics 11% $0
crypto 6% $0
tech 4% $0
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-13.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -15.1% -23.2% 14% 0% -12.5%
≤30d 10 -10.4% -19.0% 20% 0% -11.7%
≤90d 10 -10.4% -19.0% 20% 0% -11.7%
all 28 -4.7% -13.8% 29% 0% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.8% 0% -10.9%
10% -22.0% 0% -19.4%
15% -29.5% 0% -27.2%
20% -36.5% 0% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 58% · top 2 68% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.24 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.15 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

377d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses8 / 20
Open positions0
Markets (closed)28 / 28
History coverage377d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 28 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 20 $26 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 20 $23 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 17 $25 $0 -0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $24 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 14 $29 −$2 -6%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $57 $0 -1%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $23 +$1 +3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 12 $28 $0 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 11 $9 $0 +0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2025 World Series? Dec 13 $2 $0 -14%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? Dec 13 $5 $0 +2%
Will Ferrari be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Jul 03 $1 $0 -5%
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2025 World Series? Jun 27 $3 $0 -11%
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025? Jun 27 $5 $0 -1%
Will H win the most seats in the next Norwegian parliamentary election Jun 24 $17 $0 +0%
US military action against Iran by Friday? Jun 22 $5 $0 +2%
Will Ethereum dip to $1800 in June? Jun 20 $5 $0 +2%
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a member of PSD? Jun 19 $5 $0 -1%
Will Lilo & Stitch be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jun 18 $6 $0 +1%
Will Borussia Dortmund win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 16 $10 $0 -1%
Will the Liberal Party win the Canadian election by 0-3%? Jun 14 $21 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with France before July? Jun 14 $22 $0 +0%
Will the Las Vegas Raiders win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 13 $22 $0 +0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $200-250b in federal spending in 2025? Jun 12 $23 $0 +0%
Will Larry Ellison buy TikTok before July? Jun 12 $20 $0 +0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 09 $2 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 250–274 times June 6–13? Jun 09 $21 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 74¢ $7 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 74¢ $18 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 74¢ $26 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $21 10h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $2 10h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $23 14h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $15 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $10 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $25 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $24 5d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $9 5d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $14 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No $4 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 48¢ $27 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 51¢ $29 6d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $9 6d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $19 6d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $28 6d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 36¢ $15 7d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 36¢ $9 7d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 35¢ $8 7d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 35¢ $16 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 80¢ $28 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 81¢ $28 8d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $28 8d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $28 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 27¢ $7 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 27¢ $2 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 27¢ $9 9d
Will Ferrari be the 2025 Constructors Champion? SELL Yes $0 351d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 114 history records