Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T22:33:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E1 0xe1cd…8e46 sports 21 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Total PnL +$4 (+6%) realized −$7 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate50%10W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day16.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$7
14 days−$7
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 58% −$7
other 32% +$6
crypto 10% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -0.2% -9.7% 50% 45% -18.0%
≤30d 20 -0.2% -9.7% 50% 45% -18.0%
≤90d 20 -0.2% -9.7% 50% 45% -18.0%
all 20 -0.2% -9.7% 50% 45% -18.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 45% -18.0%
10% -18.3% 40% -25.9%
15% -26.2% 40% -33.0%
20% -33.4% 30% -39.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 50% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late +15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses10 / 10
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)20 / 21
History coverage2d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day16.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 20 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Over 61¢ 60¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score No 70¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Yes 54¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $7 −$6 -87%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $3 −$1 -35%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $2 −$1 -38%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $3 $0 -11%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $5 +$2 +39%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $5 −$5 -99%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $2 +$1 +68%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3 +$3 +114%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $1 +$1 +97%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $1 +$1 +105%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $2 +$1 +57%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 +$1 +20%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $2 +$1 +35%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$3 -51%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $5 −$5 -92%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 $0 -2%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $7 +$5 +71%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $4 $0 +5%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 61¢ $1 4m
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 10¢ $1 46m
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 75¢ $4 1h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 37¢ $2 1h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 20¢ $1 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 75¢ $3 1h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $2 2h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 54¢ $3 2h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 59¢ $3 3h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $3 3h
Spread: Germany (-2.5) SELL Germany 100¢ $7 3h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score BUY No 70¢ $5 11h
Spread: Germany (-2.5) BUY Germany 71¢ $5 11h
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 99¢ $3 16h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $7 16h
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 58¢ $2 17h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 46¢ $3 17h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 100¢ $3 17h
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score BUY No 50¢ $1 21h
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 48¢ $1 21h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $2 22h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $4 22h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 78¢ $3 22h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 76¢ $2 22h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 67¢ $2 22h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 92¢ $3 22h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 67¢ $2 24h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 30¢ $2 24h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 1¢ $0 25h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 66¢ $2 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.98 · official $0.98 (match) · 46 history records