Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T11:12:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
E1 0xe1cf…111f world 112 markets active 2h ago coverage 301d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +6% what you keep after slip
Net edge+6%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate35%37W / 70L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$144per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$133now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days+$3
14 days−$1
30 days+$28
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 44% +$27
other 26% −$16
politics 14% $0
sports 8% −$5
crypto 4% +$6
economics 2% $0
finance 2% +$2
tech 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)+6.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +0.1% -9.4% 20% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 34 +58.9% +43.7% 38% 3% -9.2%
≤90d 82 +23.1% +11.4% 35% 1% -9.5%
all 107 +17.6% +6.4% 35% 1% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +6.4% 1% -9.5%
10% -3.8% 1% -18.1%
15% -13.1% 1% -26.0%
20% -21.6% 1% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +18% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +36% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×1.3 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.15 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

301d coverage
Net worth$133
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses37 / 70
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions5
Markets (closed)107 / 112
History coverage301d
Avg bet$144
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 107 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? No 44¢ 44¢ $130 $131 +$1 (+1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 83¢ 82¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Yes 52¢ 48¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-8%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 13¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-0%)
Netanyahu out by June 30? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-56%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $2 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $158 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $107 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $175 −$1 -1%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $176 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $109 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $42 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $175 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $176 −$1 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $175 +$4 +2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 10 $173 +$3 +2%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 09 $174 −$5 -3%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $114 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $14 −$1 -8%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 07 $13 $0 -2%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 06 $159 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $1,178 −$1 -0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 05 $313 +$1 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $132 +$9 +7%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 04 $313 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 02 $261 +$1 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $319 +$2 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 01 $5 $0 +3%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $234 +$3 +1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 30 $496 +$20 +4%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 29 $227 −$9 -4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 28 $191 −$11 -6%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 28 $153 $0 -0%
Will Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 25 $303 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 25 $111 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 24 $174 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 24 $149 +$10 +7%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 24 $149 −$1 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 20 $106 +$6 +6%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 19 $446 +$1 +0%
Bill Clinton divorce by June 30? May 18 $161 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 17 $11 $0 +0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 15 $181 +$1 +0%
Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30? May 02 $163 −$1 -1%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 30 $206 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $385 −$1 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $417 −$1 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Apr 26 $113 $0 +0%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 25 $167 −$12 -7%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 25 $8 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 25 $173 $0 -0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 24 $316 −$2 -1%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 24 $145 −$1 -1%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $8 −$2 -26%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 21 $147 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 44¢ $130 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 7h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 9h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 76¢ $158 23h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 76¢ $158 23h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $107 23h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $107 26h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $174 30h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $175 32h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $176 38h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $176 40h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 69¢ $1 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 69¢ $108 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 69¢ $109 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $29 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 59¢ $29 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 94¢ $42 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 94¢ $42 5d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 5d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 5d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 5d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 5d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 5d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $175 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $175 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $175 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $176 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 83¢ $7 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 83¢ $86 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $133.04 · official $131.28 · 551 history records