Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:23:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
E1 0xe1d1…6a15 sports 250 markets active 1h ago coverage 44d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$2,533 (+7%) realized +$3,018 · open −$485
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate42%103W / 144L
Whale WR40%big bets
Drawdown90%max
Avg bet$146per market
Trades / day16.5pace
Fees−$689est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$207
7 days+$6
14 days−$2,239
30 days+$1,032
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% +$1,000
crypto 3% −$95
other 0% +$80
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)+0.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 +2.5% -7.3% 40% 40% -9.3%
≤30d 145 +24.4% +12.6% 45% 44% -6.1%
≤90d 247 +10.6% +0.1% 42% 41% -5.3%
all 247 +10.6% +0.1% 42% 41% -5.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.1% 41% -5.3%
10% -9.5% 41% -14.3%
15% -18.2% 38% -22.6%
20% -26.3% 34% -30.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 40% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -11% → late +32% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$157 vs −$102 · ×1.54 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.1 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

44d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$3,018
Unrealized−$485
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses103 / 144
Whale WR (big bets)40%
Est. fees paid−$689
Open positions3
Markets (closed)247 / 250
History coverage44d
Avg bet$146
Trades / day16.5
Drawdown90%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 247 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner Nongshim Esports Academy 39¢ 0¢ $271 $0 −$270 (-100%)
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 4 Winner KT Rolster Challengers 43¢ 0¢ $120 $0 −$120 (-100%)
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner Dplus KIA Challengers 36¢ 0¢ $95 $0 −$95 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 112 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner Jun 17 $246 −$39 -16%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $123 +$79 +64%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $251 −$247 -99%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La Jun 15 $596 −$281 -47%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $638 −$554 -87%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $302 +$607 +201%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $214 −$210 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 14 $147 −$140 -95%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $538 −$177 -33%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $737 +$819 +111%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $497 +$394 +79%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $330 −$324 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $263 +$67 +26%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $407 −$166 -41%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $440 −$71 -16%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $223 +$210 +94%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $571 −$562 -98%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $92 +$81 +88%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $343 +$105 +31%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $21 −$20 -97%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $554 −$542 -98%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $500 +$823 +165%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $357 +$723 +202%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $277 −$73 -26%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $147 +$446 +303%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner Jun 12 $374 −$369 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 12 $103 −$5 -5%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner Jun 12 $459 −$449 -98%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $378 +$459 +121%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $586 −$577 -98%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming Junior vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner Jun 09 $173 −$169 -98%
Valorant: NRG vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 08 $86 −$84 -98%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $329 −$325 -99%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs GamerLegion - Map 2 Winner Jun 07 $75 −$74 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 07 $101 −$27 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 07 $63 +$38 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 07 $78 −$14 -18%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $446 −$265 -59%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $313 −$309 -99%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $342 −$335 -98%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $126 +$56 +44%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Monte (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $92 +$111 +121%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp - Game 4 Winner Jun 06 $1 $0 -7%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner Jun 06 $261 +$275 +105%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $416 −$410 -98%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $449 −$442 -98%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $209 −$205 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 05 $32 −$30 -95%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 05 $450 +$240 +53%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex - Game 2 Winner Jun 04 $400 −$391 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner SELL T1 Academy 52¢ $207 33m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 Academy 59¢ $115 36m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 Academy 62¢ $47 36m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 Academy 61¢ $84 36m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner SELL T1 Academy 97¢ $202 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 Academy 58¢ $100 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 Academy 60¢ $23 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 39¢ $276 2h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 4 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 43¢ $71 3h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 4 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 43¢ $51 3h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 36¢ $97 3h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner SELL Dplus KIA Challengers 93¢ $34 3h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner SELL Dplus KIA Challengers 91¢ $386 4h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 62¢ $96 4h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 64¢ $101 4h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 54¢ $30 4h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 52¢ $51 4h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 31¢ $28 5h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 54¢ $223 6h
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La BUY Saigon Warriors 34¢ $286 2d
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La SELL Top Esports Challenger 54¢ $287 2d
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La BUY Top Esports Challenger 57¢ $310 2d
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 2 Winner BUY Top Esports Challenger 82¢ $20 2d
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 2 Winner BUY Top Esports Challenger 48¢ $136 2d
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 2 Winner BUY Top Esports Challenger 57¢ $157 2d
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 2 Winner BUY Top Esports Challenger 51¢ $76 2d
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 1 Winner SELL Top Esports Challenger 100¢ $353 2d
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 2 Winner BUY Top Esports Challenger 49¢ $152 2d
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 1 Winner SELL Top Esports Challenger 75¢ $556 2d
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 1 Winner BUY Top Esports Challenger 23¢ $123 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.62 · official $0.62 (match) · 741 history records