Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T16:48:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
E1 0xe1d3…e733 other 38 markets active 2h ago coverage 220d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$49 (+0%) realized +$44 · open +$5
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate87%27W / 4L
Drawdown24%max
Avg bet$1,210per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$247now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$3
14 days+$3
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 99% +$44
other 0% +$6
tech 0% −$3
economics 0% $0
politics 0% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-8.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +6.0% -4.1% 100% 0% -4.0%
≤30d 3 +6.0% -4.1% 100% 0% -4.0%
≤90d 6 +6.2% -3.9% 100% 17% -3.5%
all 31 +1.0% -8.6% 87% 19% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.6% 19% -9.4%
10% -17.4% 10% -18.1%
15% -25.4% 3% -26.0%
20% -32.7% 3% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 49% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% too few recent
Fragile wins
78% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$5 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×3.12 per $1 lost it wins $3.12
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

220d coverage
Net worth$247
Realized+$44
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)87%
Wins / losses27 / 4
Open positions7
Markets (closed)31 / 38
History coverage220d
Avg bet$1,210
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown24%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 31 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 94¢ 94¢ $143 $144 +$1 (+1%)
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? No 92¢ 100¢ $23 $25 +$2 (+9%)
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? No 95¢ 100¢ $19 $20 +$1 (+5%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? No 94¢ 100¢ $16 $17 +$1 (+6%)
StandX FDV above $5B one day after launch? No 97¢ 96¢ $15 $14 −$0 (-1%)
Will the US capture another world leader in 2026? No 91¢ 94¢ $14 $14 +$0 (+3%)
StandX FDV above $3B one day after launch? No 96¢ 95¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will no player win a Calendar Grand Slam in 2026? Jun 28 $14 +$1 +8%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? Jun 28 $16 $0 +3%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $3.0T and $3.5T at market close on Jun 28 $21 +$2 +8%
EdgeX FDV above $4B one day after launch? Apr 07 $10 $0 +4%
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? Apr 07 $15 $0 +1%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Apr 07 $19 +$2 +14%
US forces enter Iran by March 14? Mar 17 $32 +$8 +24%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Mar 14 $10 −$3 -29%
Israel nuclear weapon use against Iran by January 31? Mar 14 $44,843 +$23 +0%
Opinion FDV above $3B one day after launch? Mar 14 $10 +$1 +10%
US forces enter Iran by March 7? Mar 14 $28 +$2 +6%
Will Khamenei leave Iran by February 28, 2026? Mar 03 $12 $0 +3%
Zama FDV above $2B one day after launch? Mar 01 $10 $0 +2%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Feb 15 $13 $0 -0%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Feb 09 $9 −$7 -72%
US strike on Colombia by January 31? Feb 03 $9 +$1 +5%
US forces enter Iran by January 31? Feb 03 $10 +$1 +5%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026? Feb 03 $12 $0 +3%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? Feb 01 $13 $0 +2%
Will the US next strike Iran on January 18, 2026 (ET)? Feb 01 $494 +$5 +1%
US strikes Iran by January 17, 2026? Jan 18 $20 $0 +1%
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31? Jan 07 $13 +$8 +61%
US x Venezuela military engagement by January 31, 2026? Jan 04 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Mamdani get over 50% of the vote in the general mayoral election? Jan 03 $10 $0 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from December 2 to December 9, 2025 Jan 03 $10 $0 +4%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 02 $10 $0 +4%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO in 2025? Jan 02 $10 +$1 +12%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$8B one day after launch? Jan 02 $11 +$1 +7%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Jan 02 $10 +$2 +25%
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 30? Dec 16 $12 +$2 +14%
Xi Jinping out in 2025? Dec 13 $14 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $126 1h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $16 62d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? BUY No 97¢ $16 63d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? BUY No 92¢ $23 80d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $3.0T and $3.5T at market close on BUY No 93¢ $21 82d
US forces enter Iran by March 31? SELL No 60¢ $7 106d
US forces enter Iran by March 14? BUY No 86¢ $18 116d
US forces enter Iran by March 7? BUY No 93¢ $15 117d
US forces enter Iran by March 7? BUY No 95¢ $13 119d
US forces enter Iran by March 14? BUY No 74¢ $14 119d
US forces enter Iran by March 31? BUY No 85¢ $10 120d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? SELL No 99¢ $13 133d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 89¢ $17 138d
StandX FDV above $3B one day after launch? BUY No 96¢ $12 138d
StandX FDV above $5B one day after launch? BUY No 97¢ $15 138d
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $15 138d
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $19 139d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? SELL Yes 26¢ $3 139d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? BUY Yes 93¢ $9 145d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? BUY No 99¢ $13 145d
Will Khamenei leave Iran by February 28, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $12 146d
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? BUY No 88¢ $19 146d
Zama FDV above $2B one day after launch? BUY No 98¢ $10 158d
Opinion FDV above $3B one day after launch? BUY No 91¢ $10 158d
Will the US next strike Iran on January 18, 2026 (ET)? SELL No 100¢ $200 160d
Israel nuclear weapon use against Iran by January 31? SELL No 100¢ $4,655 160d
Israel nuclear weapon use against Iran by January 31? SELL No 100¢ $3,980 160d
Israel nuclear weapon use against Iran by January 31? BUY No 100¢ $40 160d
Israel nuclear weapon use against Iran by January 31? BUY No 100¢ $40 160d
Israel nuclear weapon use against Iran by January 31? BUY No 100¢ $2,933 160d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $246.99 · official $246.99 (match) · 498 history records