Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T06:48:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
E1 0xe1d3…b8de sports 560 markets active 0h ago coverage 97d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$5,266 (+7%) realized +$5,503 · open −$237
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate49%272W / 284L
Whale WR75%big bets
Drawdown68%max
Avg bet$139per market
Trades / day19.4pace
Fees−$872est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$303now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$200
7 days+$2,503
14 days+$458
30 days−$127
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$4,637
other 0% −$139
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-6.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 +62.0% +46.6% 67% 67% +53.3%
≤30d 163 -5.1% -14.2% 39% 39% -10.0%
≤90d 502 +3.8% -6.1% 48% 48% -2.6%
all 556 +3.6% -6.3% 49% 49% -3.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.3% 49% -3.9%
10% -15.3% 48% -13.1%
15% -23.5% 47% -21.5%
20% -31.0% 40% -29.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 75% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +7% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$144 vs −$121 · ×1.19 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.14 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

97d coverage
Net worth$303
Realized+$5,503
Unrealized−$237
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses272 / 284
Whale WR (big bets)75%
Est. fees paid−$872
Open positions4
Markets (closed)556 / 560
History coverage97d
Avg bet$139
Trades / day19.4
Drawdown68%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 556 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dota 2: Execration vs Carstensz (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Closed Qualifier Playoffs Execration 62¢ 62¢ $124 $125 +$1 (+1%)
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Flame Team (BO3) - European Pro League Playoffs Flame Team 46¢ 48¢ $92 $95 +$3 (+3%)
Dota 2: Spirit Academy vs Hive (BO3) - European Pro League Playoffs Spirit Academy 64¢ 56¢ $96 $83 −$13 (-13%)
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs Amaru Gaming (BO3) - The International South America Closed Qualifier Playoffs Team Nemesis 58¢ 0¢ $229 $0 −$229 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 273 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South America Jun 19 $93 +$57 +62%
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs (BO3) - The International South Am Jun 18 $294 −$144 -49%
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs Flame Team (BO3) - European Pro League Playof Jun 18 $89 +$61 +69%
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - European Pro League Playoffs Jun 18 $97 +$103 +107%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Noir Esports (BO3) - European Pro League Grou Jun 18 $78 −$3 -3%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China Jun 18 $52 −$51 -98%
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers (BO3) - The International C Jun 18 $61 −$60 -98%
Dota 2: Flame Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - European Pro League Group B Jun 17 $77 +$298 +385%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Flame Team (BO3) - European Pro League Group Jun 17 $64 −$63 -98%
Dota 2: Flame Team vs Spirit Academy (BO3) - European Pro League Group Jun 16 $58 −$57 -99%
Dota 2: Lindorfitos vs x5 Gaming (BO3) - The International South Ameri Jun 15 $35 +$65 +186%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Game Master (BO3) - The International China Jun 15 $148 +$102 +69%
Dota 2: D family vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - EPL World Series Southea Jun 15 $31 +$118 +376%
Dota 2: Ilbirs eSports vs Noir Esports (BO3) - European Pro League Gro Jun 15 $125 −$23 -19%
Dota 2: Ilbirs eSports vs Noir Esports (BO3) - European Pro League Gro Jun 15 $135 −$10 -8%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $117 +$83 +70%
Dota 2: Ilbirs eSports vs Spirit Academy (BO3) - European Pro League G Jun 15 $137 +$112 +82%
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs Zero Tenacity (BO3) - The International Europe Op Jun 15 $143 +$107 +75%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs REKONIX - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $172 +$128 +74%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $171 +$179 +105%
Dota 2: Level UP vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Europe Jun 15 $250 +$200 +80%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs REKONIX - Game 4 Winner Jun 15 $254 +$246 +97%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 15 $352 +$348 +99%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 15 $281 +$519 +184%
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Cloud Rising - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $17 −$17 -100%
Dota 2: Mentality Monster vs Carstensz (BO3) - EPL World Series Southe Jun 14 $101 +$41 +41%
Dota 2: Inner Circle vs Nemiga Gaming (BO3) - The International Europe Jun 12 $180 +$160 +89%
Libema Open: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Rinderknech Jun 11 $82 −$81 -99%
Libema Open: Ugo Humbert vs Benjamin Bonzi Jun 11 $87 −$85 -99%
Dota 2: Carstensz vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast As Jun 10 $229 −$227 -99%
Libema Open: Zhizhen Zhang vs Jenson Brooksby Jun 09 $87 −$87 -100%
Libema Open: Jaume Munar vs Martin Damm Jun 09 $79 −$78 -99%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 07 $20 −$20 -100%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 07 $67 −$66 -98%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 07 $87 −$86 -98%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 06 $88 −$87 -99%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $104 −$104 -100%
Dota 2: G-Time vs summer bear (BO3) - European Pro League Group A Jun 06 $124 −$124 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 05 $353 −$17 -5%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev Jun 05 $43 −$42 -98%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora - Game 1 Winner Jun 05 $78 −$76 -99%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs REKONIX (BO5) - Esports World Cup Southeast Asia Clos Jun 05 $489 −$483 -99%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 05 $159 −$155 -98%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Game 1 Winner Jun 05 $102 −$100 -98%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs REKONIX - Game 1 Winner Jun 05 $125 −$125 -100%
Dota 2: Execration vs REKONIX - Game 2 Winner Jun 05 $74 −$73 -100%
Dota 2: Execration vs REKONIX (BO3) - Esports World Cup Southeast Asia Jun 05 $261 −$257 -99%
LoL: ⁠Movistar KOI Fénix vs UCAM Esports Club (BO5) - LES Playoffs Jun 04 $147 −$145 -99%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Execration - Game 2 Winner Jun 04 $9 +$9 +100%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Execration (BO3) - Esports World Cup Southeast Asia C Jun 04 $121 +$173 +142%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: Execration vs Carstensz (BO3) - The International Southeast As BUY Execration 62¢ $71 5m
Dota 2: Execration vs Carstensz (BO3) - The International Southeast As BUY Execration 62¢ $51 20m
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs Amaru Gaming (BO3) - The International South A BUY Team Nemesis 55¢ $3 36m
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs Amaru Gaming (BO3) - The International South A BUY Team Nemesis 55¢ $22 36m
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs Amaru Gaming (BO3) - The International South A BUY Team Nemesis 54¢ $52 36m
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs Amaru Gaming (BO3) - The International South A BUY Team Nemesis 54¢ $2 36m
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs Amaru Gaming (BO3) - The International South A BUY Team Nemesis 54¢ $11 36m
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs Amaru Gaming (BO3) - The International South A BUY Team Nemesis 54¢ $11 36m
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs Amaru Gaming (BO3) - The International South A BUY Team Nemesis 54¢ $5 36m
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Flame Team (BO3) - European Pro League Playoffs BUY Flame Team 46¢ $2 1h
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Flame Team (BO3) - European Pro League Playoffs BUY Flame Team 46¢ $78 1h
Dota 2: Spirit Academy vs Hive (BO3) - European Pro League Playoffs BUY Spirit Academy 64¢ $4 1h
Dota 2: Spirit Academy vs Hive (BO3) - European Pro League Playoffs BUY Spirit Academy 64¢ $16 1h
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs Amaru Gaming (BO3) - The International South A BUY Team Nemesis 62¢ $125 1h
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Flame Team (BO3) - European Pro League Playoffs BUY Flame Team 46¢ $12 1h
Dota 2: Spirit Academy vs Hive (BO3) - European Pro League Playoffs BUY Spirit Academy 64¢ $6 1h
Dota 2: Spirit Academy vs Hive (BO3) - European Pro League Playoffs BUY Spirit Academy 64¢ $70 1h
Dota 2: Execration vs Carstensz (BO3) - The International Southeast As BUY Execration 62¢ $3 1h
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs (BO3) - The International South Am BUY Estar Backs 52¢ $15 13h
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs (BO3) - The International South Am BUY Estar Backs 52¢ $1 13h
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs (BO3) - The International South Am BUY Estar Backs 52¢ $54 13h
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs (BO3) - The International South Am BUY Estar Backs 52¢ $6 13h
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs (BO3) - The International South Am BUY Estar Backs 52¢ $54 13h
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs (BO3) - The International South Am BUY Estar Backs 50¢ $102 13h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South America BUY LGD Gaming 61¢ $93 14h
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs (BO3) - The International South Am BUY Amaru Gaming 41¢ $18 14h
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs (BO3) - The International South Am BUY Amaru Gaming 41¢ $44 14h
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs Flame Team (BO3) - European Pro League Playof BUY Flame Team 59¢ $62 14h
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs Flame Team (BO3) - European Pro League Playof BUY Flame Team 59¢ $1 14h
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs Flame Team (BO3) - European Pro League Playof BUY Flame Team 59¢ $3 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $303.44 · official $303.44 (match) · 2057 history records