Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T13:22:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

E1
0xe1d4…a31e
weather · 776 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$3,465 -26%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$3,367 · open −$95
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$435
Realized−$3,367
Unrealized−$95
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses339 / 674
Est. fees paid−$46
Open positions30
Markets (closed)1013 / 776
History coverage58d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day52.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%
Chart Positions 30 History 1013 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2,003
7 days−$1,753
14 days−$1,282
30 days−$1,417
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 1 Winner G2 78¢ 100¢ $83 $106 +$23 (+28%)
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 1 Winner PARIVISION 86¢ 100¢ $84 $98 +$14 (+17%)
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 FURIA 70¢ 100¢ $57 $82 +$25 (+44%)
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 2 Winner FUT Esports 53¢ 66¢ $51 $64 +$13 (+25%)
Anthropic IPO before 2027? No 37¢ 18¢ $63 $30 −$33 (-53%)
Brie Larson as Captain Marvel? Yes 49¢ 62¢ $6 $8 +$2 (+26%)
Tobey Maguire as Spider-Man? Yes 76¢ 81¢ $7 $8 +$0 (+7%)
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 PARIVISION 58¢ 78¢ $6 $8 +$2 (+34%)
Benedict Cumberbatch as Doctor Strange? Yes 80¢ 85¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+6%)
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 8¢ 5¢ $6 $4 −$2 (-31%)
Evangeline Lilly as the Wasp? No 91¢ 74¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-19%)
Will Donald Trump attend NATO Summit? No 3¢ 10¢ $1 $3 +$2 (+245%)
Zoe Kravitz and Harry Styles engaged by August 31? No 52¢ 32¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-37%)
Will Renan Santos finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 64¢ 46¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-27%)
Don Cheadle as James Rhodes / War Machine? No 58¢ 43¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-26%)
Will Lula announce the nomination of an individual for Minister of the Supreme Federal Court of Brazil by December 31? No 13¢ 24¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+88%)
Tucker Carlson federally charged? No 91¢ 98¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+8%)
Will FalleN win a S-Tier event before June 30? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-8%)
Will Barclays or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in Anthropic's initial public offering? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-14%)
Will Max Verstappen retire from F1 in 2026? No 72¢ 85¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+18%)
Adam Back confirmed to be Satoshi by December 31? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+18%)
Will Afghanistan recognize Israel by December 31? Yes 9¢ 6¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-28%)
Will M80 win IEM Cologne Major 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 94¢ 86¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-8%)
Jonathan Majors as Kang? Yes 18¢ 7¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-61%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump say "Fake news" during Memphis Roundtable? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 13°C on March 24? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? Jun 12 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Trump say "Israel" 3+ times during Monday press conference? Jun 12 $4 −$7 -173%
Will the highest temperature in London be 8°C on February 15? Jun 12 $44 −$27 -62%
Will Trump say "Alien" in Corpus Christi on Friday? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be 75°F or below on April 7? Jun 12 $0 −$3 -93052%
Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" in Corpus Christi on Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 8°C on March 26? Jun 12 $58 −$58 -100%
Will Trump's remarks not air? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -137%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 27, 2026 (ET)? Jun 12 $0 −$8 -959188%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 10°C on April 15? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 6°C on April 8? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on March 24? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Trump say "Democrat" during College Football Roundtable? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from March 16 to March 18, 2026? Jun 12 $17 −$17 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 2°C on February 23? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump say "God" 7+ times during the Easter Lunch on Wednesday? Jun 12 $0 +$2 +2200%
Will Trump say "Oil" 5+ times during Monday press conference? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the announcers say "Knockout" or "Knock Out" or "Knocked Out" dur Jun 12 $0 −$1 -1187%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close at $180-$185 on the final day of trading of t Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Powell say "China" during March press conference? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -136%
Will the highest temperature in London be 6°C on February 19? Jun 12 $29 −$29 -100%
Will Trump say "250" or "250th" during the FII PRIORITY Summit? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Trump say "Hormuz" during Cabinet meeting on March 26? Jun 12 $3 $0 +12%
Will Trump say "Secretary of War" during Medal of Honor ceremony on Ma Jun 12 $14 −$14 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 10°C on March 26? Jun 12 $1 +$49 +4399%
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on March 23? Jun 12 $3 +$26 +831%
Will Trump say "Russia" or "Russian" during Monday press conference? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 6 to April 8, 2026? Jun 12 $17 −$17 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 76-77°F on April 8? Jun 12 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on March 19? Jun 12 $1 +$20 +1567%
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by March 31? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 23°C or higher on April 11? Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 70-71°F on April 12? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 8°C on March 29? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C on March 29? Jun 12 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on March 21? Jun 12 $24 −$22 -89%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on April 14 Jun 12 $18 −$18 -100%
Will JD Vance say "Venezuela" during meetings with Orbán? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on March 28? Jun 12 $29 −$24 -82%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on Ap Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 7°C on February 18? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 4°C on February 16? Jun 12 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 9°C or higher on February 15? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on April 11? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 36-37°F on Fe Jun 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 29% −$275
other 29% −$1,647
sports 24% +$58
politics 11% +$113
crypto 3% −$11
culture 2% −$39
world 1% $0
tech 0% +$14
economics 0% −$1
finance 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY FUT Esports 52¢ $33 16m
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY FUT Esports 55¢ $5 19m
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY FUT Esports 56¢ $3 19m
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY FUT Esports 56¢ $3 19m
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY FUT Esports 56¢ $7 19m
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY G2 78¢ $76 53m
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY G2 79¢ $4 53m
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY G2 79¢ $4 54m
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 1 Winner BUY PARIVISION 78¢ $31 1h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 1 Winner BUY PARIVISION 79¢ $4 1h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 1 Winner BUY PARIVISION 79¢ $4 1h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 1 Winner BUY PARIVISION 93¢ $6 1h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 1 Winner BUY PARIVISION 93¢ $5 1h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 1 Winner BUY PARIVISION 93¢ $36 1h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 53¢ $36 1h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 55¢ $3 1h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY PARIVISION 58¢ $6 2h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FURIA 70¢ $29 2h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FURIA 71¢ $4 2h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FURIA 71¢ $4 2h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FURIA 71¢ $4 2h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FURIA 68¢ $3 2h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FURIA 68¢ $14 2h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner BUY Hanwha Life Esports 83¢ $53 2h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner BUY Hanwha Life Esports 82¢ $4 2h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL TheMongolz 99¢ $85 2h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner BUY Hanwha Life Esports 80¢ $54 2h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner BUY Hanwha Life Esports 80¢ $5 2h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 83¢ $56 4h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 66¢ $3 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-18.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 355 +7.6% -2.7% 15% 14% -49.8%
≤30d 520 +0.6% -9.0% 26% 20% -33.7%
≤90d 1013 -9.6% -18.2% 33% 21% -33.5%
all 1013 -9.6% -18.2% 33% 21% -33.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover52.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.2% 21% -33.5%
10% ← realistic here -26.0% 17% -39.9%
15% -33.2% 13% -45.7%
20% -39.7% 11% -51.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $435.39 · official $432.14 (match) · 3500 history records