Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T01:28:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E1 0xe1d8…4caa weather 353 markets active 2h ago coverage 68d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate91%318W / 32L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day5.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$1
14 days−$2
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -9.5% -18.1% 86% 21% -18.1%
≤30d 90 -0.8% -10.2% 92% 16% -10.2%
≤90d 350 -1.5% -10.9% 91% 21% -10.7%
all 350 -1.5% -10.9% 91% 21% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.9% 21% -10.7%
10% -19.4% 0% -19.2%
15% -27.2% 0% -27.0%
20% -34.3% 0% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
76% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.08 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

68d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)91%
Wins / losses318 / 32
Open positions3
Markets (closed)350 / 353
History coverage68d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day5.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 350 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 16? No 98¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 17? No 93¢ 93¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 17? No 92¢ 88¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 86°F or higher on June 13? Jun 14 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 13? Jun 14 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 22°C on June 13? Jun 14 $1 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 10? Jun 11 $1 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on June 10? Jun 11 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on June 10? Jun 11 $1 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on June 10? Jun 11 $1 $0 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 9? Jun 09 $1 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C or below on June 8? Jun 09 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 8? Jun 08 $1 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on June 7? Jun 08 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 7? Jun 08 $1 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on June 7? Jun 08 $1 $0 +10%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju Jun 07 $1 $0 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 6? Jun 06 $1 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 6? Jun 06 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 6? Jun 06 $1 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 4? Jun 05 $1 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on June 3? Jun 05 $1 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 3? Jun 05 $1 $0 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 4? Jun 05 $1 $0 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 3? Jun 03 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on June 2? Jun 03 $1 $0 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on June 2? Jun 02 $1 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C or below on June 2? Jun 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 81°F or below on June 1? Jun 02 $1 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 1? Jun 02 $1 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 1? Jun 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 1? Jun 01 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on May 31? Jun 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on May 31? Jun 01 $1 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on May 30? May 31 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on May 30? May 31 $1 $0 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C or below on May 30? May 31 $1 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on May 30? May 30 $1 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on May 29? May 30 $1 $0 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C or below on May 29? May 30 $1 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 84-85°F on May 28? May 29 $1 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on May 28? May 29 $1 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on May 28? May 28 $1 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on Ma May 28 $1 −$1 -68%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 76-77°F on May 27? May 28 $1 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on May 27? May 28 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on May 27? May 28 $1 $0 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on May 27? May 28 $1 $0 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 17? BUY No 93¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 17? BUY No 92¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 15? BUY No 86¢ $1 36h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 16? BUY No 98¢ $1 44h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 15? BUY No 86¢ $1 45h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 14? BUY No 88¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 86°F or higher on June 13? BUY No 98¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 13? BUY No 98¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 22°C on June 13? BUY No 92¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 13? BUY No 90¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 12? BUY No 88¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on June 10? BUY No 98¢ $1 6d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on June 10? BUY No 88¢ $1 6d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on June 10? BUY No 96¢ $1 6d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 10? BUY No 97¢ $1 6d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 9? BUY No 96¢ $1 7d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C or below on June 8? BUY No 98¢ $1 7d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 8? BUY No 94¢ $1 8d
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on June 7? BUY No 90¢ $1 9d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 7? BUY No 97¢ $1 9d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on June 7? BUY No 98¢ $1 9d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 6? BUY No 97¢ $1 10d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 6? BUY No 98¢ $1 10d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju BUY No 87¢ $1 10d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 6? BUY No 95¢ $1 10d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 4? BUY No 94¢ $1 12d
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on June 3? BUY No 94¢ $1 12d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 4? BUY No 90¢ $1 13d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on June 2? BUY No 89¢ $1 13d
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 3? BUY No 90¢ $1 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
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