Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T00:55:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
E1 0xe1dd…2cab other 113 markets active 2h ago coverage 115d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$63 (-0%) realized −$63 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate6%7W / 106L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$240per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% −$15
politics 29% −$11
sports 8% −$36
economics 5% −$2
crypto 4% −$1
tech 3% −$1
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-14.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 17 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 99 -2.3% -11.6% 5% 4% -9.6%
all 113 -5.1% -14.2% 6% 5% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.2% 5% -9.7%
10% -22.4% 3% -18.4%
15% -29.9% 1% -26.3%
20% -36.7% 1% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 57% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -10% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$1 · ×7.42 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.49 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

115d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$63
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses7 / 106
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)113 / 113
History coverage115d
Avg bet$240
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 113 Trades
no open positions (9 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 20 $317 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $26 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? Jun 20 $40 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $39 $0 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $38 $0 -0%
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $42 $0 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 09 $39 $0 -0%
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 06 $24 $0 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 01 $34 $0 -0%
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 31 $25 $0 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 30 $276 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 30 $291 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 27 $207 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 27 $177 $0 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 24 $196 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $358 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 22 $221 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 20 $387 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? May 20 $234 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 19 $480 −$1 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 18 $234 $0 -0%
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 18 $199 $0 -0%
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 16 $437 −$1 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 15 $213 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 14 $233 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? May 13 $479 −$1 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 12 $672 −$1 -0%
Will Roy Barreras win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 11 $224 $0 -0%
Will Cho Kuk win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 11 $182 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $420 $0 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? May 10 $368 $0 -0%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 09 $246 $0 -0%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 07 $255 $0 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 07 $216 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $417 $0 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 06 $212 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 05 $227 $0 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? May 04 $444 −$1 -0%
Will Carlos Felipe Córdoba win the 2026 Colombian presidential electio May 03 $202 $0 -0%
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 03 $229 $0 -0%
Will the New Orleans Saints win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 02 $258 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $257 −$1 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 01 $220 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 29 $460 −$1 -0%
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? Apr 22 $255 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 22 $434 $0 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $508 −$1 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 20 $183 $0 -0%
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 19 $204 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $253 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $40 1h
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $40 6h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $26 6h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $26 12h
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $40 12h
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $40 5d
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $39 6d
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $39 7d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $38 9d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $38 10d
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $42 10d
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $42 11d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $39 11d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $39 13d
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 100¢ $24 14d
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $24 14d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $34 19d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $34 20d
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $25 20d
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $25 21d
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $28 21d
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $28 22d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $22 22d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $22 22d
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $248 23d
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $248 24d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 99¢ $207 24d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $207 24d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $177 24d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $177 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 332 history records