Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T13:45:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
E1 0xe1e1…fe22 crypto 5 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$185 (+38%) realized +$185 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%2W / 3L
Drawdown50%max
Avg bet$98per market
Trades / day9.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$99
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-25.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -17.1% -25.0% 40% 40% +86.7%
≤30d 5 -17.1% -25.0% 40% 40% +86.7%
≤90d 5 -17.1% -25.0% 40% 40% +86.7%
all 5 -17.1% -25.0% 40% 40% +86.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.0% 40% +86.7%
10% -32.2% 40% +68.8%
15% -38.8% 40% +52.5%
20% -44.8% 40% +37.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 95% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +59% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt +59% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$95 vs −$30 · ×3.13 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.09 per $1 lost it wins $2.09
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$185
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses2 / 3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)5 / 5
History coverage1d
Avg bet$98
Trades / day9.0
Drawdown50%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 5 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 24 $10 +$9 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 24 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8AM ET Jun 24 $326 −$80 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1AM ET Jun 24 $144 +$180 +125%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12AM ET Jun 24 $1 −$1 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $10 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $10 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8AM ET SELL Up 29¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8AM ET SELL Up 30¢ $197 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $13 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $313 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $144 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 11 history records