Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T04:11:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

E1
0xe1e2…9629
other · 319 markets active 0h ago
2.5score
+$2,010 +2%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$1,819 · open +$21
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$4,351
Realized+$1,819
Unrealized+$21
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses171 / 136
Whale WR (big bets)68%
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions12
Markets (closed)307 / 319
History coverage1089d
Avg bet$357
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown26%
Kalshi-fit55%
Chart Positions 12 History 307 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$118
30 days+$270
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Prince Andrew sentenced to prison? No 92¢ 93¢ $3,592 $3,619 +$28 (+1%)
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? No 86¢ 80¢ $300 $280 −$20 (-7%)
Starmer out by June 15, 2026? No 94¢ 100¢ $215 $227 +$12 (+6%)
Will GameStop acquire eBay? No 84¢ 84¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Ciryl Gane 51¢ 50¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Alex Pereira win by KO or TKO? No 54¢ 56¢ $25 $26 +$1 (+3%)
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by June 30? No 88¢ 92¢ $23 $24 +$1 (+5%)
World Cup Goals H2H: Dembele vs. Olise Dembele 44¢ 44¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? Yes 29¢ 40¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+40%)
Will Deniz Undav be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+25%)
Will Andrej Kramarić be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $5 $2 −$2 (-50%)
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? No 57¢ 46¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-20%)
US strikes Iran by December 31, 2026? No 23¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? No 77¢ 0¢ $35 $0 −$35 (-100%)
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by March 31, 2026? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $60 $0 −$60 (-100%)
US strikes Iran by February 26, 2026? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Will Pete Hegseth ban Claude by March 31? No 3¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
US strikes Iran by February 25, 2026? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026? No 74¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
US strikes Iran by February 21, 2026? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Ollie Watkins: Anytime Goalscorer No 97¢ 0¢ $18 $0 −$18 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? Jun 08 $162 −$1 -1%
Starmer out by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $10,722 −$116 -1%
Emiliano Buendia: Anytime Goalscorer May 24 $9 $0 +5%
Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoeven May 24 $2,230 +$197 +9%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 22 $5 $0 +10%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 22 $15,130 +$300 +2%
Ollie Watkins: Anytime Goalscorer May 22 $18 −$18 -100%
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? May 22 $5,038 −$60 -1%
Will Southampton achieve promotion from the EFL Championship to the En May 21 $900 +$11 +1%
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? May 19 $2,191 +$83 +4%
Starmer out by May 19, 2026? May 16 $1,653 −$174 -10%
Putin and Zelenskyy shake hands by June 30? May 15 $56 $0 +0%
Tim Walz charged by December 31, 2026? May 15 $1,762 +$46 +3%
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? May 13 $111 −$5 -4%
Chirayu Rana sued? May 11 $5 −$1 -15%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 11 $5 +$1 +12%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 10 $7 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by March 31? Apr 05 $3,986 −$53 -1%
Will Marco Rose be appointed as manager of Tottenham? Apr 03 $8 +$1 +14%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March? Mar 07 $5 −$5 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026? Mar 02 $100 +$4 +4%
US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026? Feb 27 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Arsenal finish in the top 4 of the EPL 2025–26 standings? Feb 27 $214 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by March 31? Feb 27 $100 $0 +0%
Will Pete Hegseth ban Claude by March 31? Feb 27 $20 −$20 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Feb 27 $35 −$35 -100%
US strikes Iran by December 31, 2026? Feb 27 $25 −$25 -100%
The Ring - High Stakes: Ryan Garcia vs. Mario Barrios Feb 22 $80 +$2 +3%
US strikes Iran by February 26, 2026? Feb 22 $8 −$8 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 22, 2026? Feb 22 $5 −$3 -66%
US strikes Iran by February 25, 2026? Feb 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026? Feb 22 $100 −$2 -2%
US strikes Iran by February 21, 2026? Feb 20 $5 −$5 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026? Feb 20 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Hannah Spencer win the Gorton and Denton by-election? Feb 20 $42 −$6 -13%
Will Ryan Mason be appointed as manager of Tottenham? Feb 20 $30 −$2 -5%
Tim Walz charged by March 31, 2026? Feb 15 $250 +$5 +2%
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? Feb 14 $61 −$16 -26%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $80 by end of January? Feb 12 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Ehud Barak be named in newly released Epstein files? Feb 12 $27 −$27 -100%
Will Trump pardon Roger Ver in 2025? Feb 12 $10 −$10 -100%
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 23? Feb 12 $5 −$5 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 9, 2026? Feb 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk be named in newly released Epstein files? Feb 12 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Russia capture Slovainsk in 2025? Feb 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Gold close above $4000 at the end of 2025? Feb 12 $175 −$156 -89%
Maduro out by March 31, 2026? Feb 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Maduro out by December 31, 2026? Feb 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Jake Paul fight Anthony Joshua in 2025? Feb 12 $661 +$330 +50%
Will Donald Trump visit Ukraine in 2026? Feb 12 $75 −$10 -14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 52% +$683
world 32% +$266
politics 7% −$132
sports 6% +$846
tech 2% +$106
economics 1% +$135
crypto 0% −$68
culture 0% +$9
finance 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Alex Pereira win by KO or TKO? BUY No 54¢ $1 13m
Will Alex Pereira win by KO or TKO? BUY No 54¢ $0 1h
Will Alex Pereira win by KO or TKO? BUY No 54¢ $14 1h
Will Alex Pereira win by KO or TKO? BUY No 54¢ $10 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 51¢ $51 1h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $101 2h
Will GameStop acquire eBay? BUY No 84¢ $50 30h
Will Deniz Undav be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 2d
Will Andrej Kramarić be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $5 2d
World Cup Goals H2H: Dembele vs. Olise BUY Dembele 44¢ $10 2d
Prince Andrew sentenced to prison? BUY No 93¢ $1,003 5d
Will GameStop acquire eBay? BUY No 85¢ $50 7d
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by June 30? BUY No 90¢ $6 8d
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by June 30? BUY No 87¢ $17 11d
Starmer out by June 15, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $100 11d
Starmer out by June 15, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $25 11d
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $201 11d
Starmer out by June 15, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $90 11d
Prince Andrew sentenced to prison? BUY No 93¢ $28 12d
Starmer out by May 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $7 15d
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 29¢ $5 16d
Starmer out by May 31, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $30 20d
Starmer out by May 31, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $100 20d
Starmer out by May 31, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $962 20d
Starmer out by May 31, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $1,002 20d
Starmer out by May 31, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $331 20d
Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoeven BUY Usyk 92¢ $6 22d
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $5 22d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $1 22d
Ollie Watkins: Anytime Goalscorer BUY No 97¢ $18 22d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-16.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.8% -10.3% 0% 0% -10.3%
≤30d 13 -6.1% -15.1% 62% 0% -8.9%
≤90d 19 -3.9% -13.1% 53% 11% -9.1%
all 307 -7.8% -16.6% 56% 22% -8.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.6% 22% -8.0%
10% -24.6% 13% -16.8%
15% -31.9% 10% -24.9%
20% -38.6% 8% -32.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,350.79 · official $4,350.71 (match) · 1679 history records