Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:36:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E1 0xe1e3…0009 other 54 markets active 0h ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$991 (-17%) realized −$952 · open −$39
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -25% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate32%16W / 34L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$110per market
Trades / day9.0pace
Fees−$42est.
Kalshi-fit37%portable
Net worth$69now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$339
7 days−$1,021
14 days−$1,021
30 days−$1,021
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% −$987
sports 44% +$143
world 2% −$95
crypto 2% −$122
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-32.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 50 -25.0% -32.1% 32% 32% -25.5%
≤30d 50 -25.0% -32.1% 32% 32% -25.5%
≤90d 50 -25.0% -32.1% 32% 32% -25.5%
all 50 -25.0% -32.1% 32% 32% -25.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -32.1% 32% -25.5%
10% -38.6% 28% -32.7%
15% -44.5% 28% -39.2%
20% -50.0% 24% -45.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -25% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -22% → late -28% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$111 vs −$82 · ×1.35 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$69
Realized−$952
Unrealized−$39
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses16 / 34
Est. fees paid−$42
Open positions4
Markets (closed)50 / 54
History coverage10d
Avg bet$110
Trades / day9.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit37%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 50 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 8¢ $38 $30 −$8 (-21%)
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 2 - 2 Colombia? Yes 9¢ 9¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-3%)
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? Yes 30¢ 29¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-3%)
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 1 Colombia? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $198 +$32 +16%
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Croatia? Jun 17 $41 −$40 -98%
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $41 −$40 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $51 −$47 -91%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $36 −$35 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $302 −$300 -99%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $204 −$200 -98%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $203 −$200 -99%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $203 +$189 +93%
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $31 −$30 -97%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $31 −$30 -97%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $41 −$40 -98%
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $31 −$30 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $102 +$107 +105%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $202 +$115 +57%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $31 −$14 -46%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $31 +$140 +454%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $36 −$35 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $36 −$35 -98%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 2 Norway? Jun 16 $31 +$28 +90%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $314 +$202 +64%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $26 −$25 -97%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $21 −$20 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $263 +$131 +50%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $41 −$34 -83%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $36 −$27 -76%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $51 −$50 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $127 −$95 -74%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $101 −$3 -3%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $81 +$44 +54%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $232 −$230 -99%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $171 −$129 -76%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $91 +$60 +66%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $21 −$6 -30%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $181 −$88 -49%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 15 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $122 −$122 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 15 $362 −$362 -100%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 15 $82 −$61 -75%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $61 −$54 -88%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $203 −$135 -67%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $343 +$52 +15%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 15 $72 +$187 +262%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $202 +$132 +65%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $31 −$24 -80%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $203 +$207 +102%
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $51 +$77 +152%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $167 +$70 +42%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 2 - 2 Colombia? BUY Yes 9¢ $21 1m
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? BUY Yes 30¢ $20 3m
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 1 Colombia? BUY Yes 10¢ $31 20m
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 88¢ $230 20m
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 75¢ $198 1h
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Croatia? BUY Yes 13¢ $41 8h
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 14¢ $41 8h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 2¢ $5 8h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 21¢ $51 20h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 9¢ $36 20h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 13¢ $51 20h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $302 20h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 2.5 BUY Over 40¢ $204 20h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 52¢ $203 21h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $392 21h
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 0 Jordan? BUY Yes 11¢ $31 23h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $203 23h
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 11¢ $31 23h
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? BUY Yes 16¢ $41 24h
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 0 Jordan? BUY Yes 14¢ $31 24h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $208 24h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $317 24h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? SELL Yes 4¢ $17 24h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? SELL Yes 52¢ $171 24h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 7¢ $31 26h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 9¢ $31 26h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 11¢ $36 26h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 15¢ $36 26h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $102 26h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 63¢ $202 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $69.28 · official $73.63 · 103 history records