Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T22:37:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E1 0xe1e4…a1ad sports 178 markets active 0h ago coverage 89d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$432 (-1%) realized +$20 · open −$452
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate57%98W / 75L
Whale WR45%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$183per market
Trades / day6.7pace
Fees−$298est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$3,675now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,081
7 days−$1,081
14 days−$384
30 days−$307
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% −$1,279
other 2% +$187
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -70.2% -73.1% 14% 14% -26.2%
≤30d 48 -3.0% -12.3% 56% 46% -10.9%
≤90d 173 -2.9% -12.1% 57% 54% -11.5%
all 173 -2.9% -12.1% 57% 54% -11.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.1% 54% -11.5%
10% -20.6% 48% -20.0%
15% -28.2% 39% -27.7%
20% -35.3% 30% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 45% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +7% → late -13% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$55 vs −$81 · ×0.68 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

89d coverage
Net worth$3,675
Realized+$20
Unrealized−$452
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses98 / 75
Whale WR (big bets)45%
Est. fees paid−$298
Open positions5
Markets (closed)173 / 178
History coverage89d
Avg bet$183
Trades / day6.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 173 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins Miami Marlins 66¢ 96¢ $1,526 $2,196 +$669 (+44%)
Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5) Miami Marlins 58¢ 87¢ $408 $609 +$201 (+49%)
Spread: Miami Marlins (-3.5) Miami Marlins 60¢ 60¢ $248 $247 −$1 (-0%)
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 11.5 Under 67¢ 74¢ $206 $229 +$23 (+11%)
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins San Francisco Giants 40¢ 4¢ $745 $83 −$662 (-89%)
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5 Under 49¢ 23¢ $24 $12 −$13 (-53%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Francisco Giants Jun 20 $443 −$305 -69%
Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5) Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5 Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Miami Marlins vs. Was Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5) Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Miami Marlins (-3.5) Jun 20 $30 −$30 -100%
Spread: Miami Marlins (-3.5) Jun 20 $95 −$95 -100%
Spread: Miami Marlins (-3.5) Jun 20 $93 −$93 -100%
Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5) Jun 20 $102 −$102 -100%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Francisco Giants Jun 20 $61 +$50 +82%
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5 Jun 20 $216 +$100 +46%
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins Jun 20 $4,927 −$577 -12%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 5.5 Jun 11 $175 −$10 -6%
Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5) Jun 11 $221 +$110 +50%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 11 $254 +$346 +136%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 11 $928 +$272 +29%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 5.5 Jun 11 $77 +$23 +30%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 6.5 Jun 11 $105 +$29 +28%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 11 $283 −$83 -29%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5 Jun 11 $744 −$544 -73%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 10.5 Jun 11 $355 +$54 +15%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 9.5 Jun 11 $768 −$168 -22%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5 Jun 11 $855 −$55 -6%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 11 $1,292 +$33 +2%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 10.5 Jun 10 $56 +$43 +76%
Spread: Miami Marlins (-3.5) Jun 10 $138 +$62 +45%
Spread: Miami Marlins (-2.5) Jun 10 $77 +$173 +223%
Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5) Jun 10 $161 +$138 +86%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 10 $197 +$203 +103%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5 Jun 10 $392 +$58 +15%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 9.5 Jun 10 $454 +$145 +32%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 10 $2,387 +$268 +11%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Tampa Bay Rays vs. Mi Jun 07 $69 +$6 +8%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 5.5 Jun 07 $408 +$82 +20%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami Marlins Jun 07 $1,109 −$154 -14%
Spread: Miami Marlins (-2.5) Jun 06 $308 −$258 -84%
Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5) Jun 06 $201 −$151 -75%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5 Jun 06 $632 +$18 +3%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami Marlins Jun 06 $1,142 +$58 +5%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Tampa Bay Rays vs. Mi Jun 06 $37 +$13 +34%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami Marlins Jun 06 $103 +$47 +46%
Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals Jun 03 $5 +$5 +87%
Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 7.5 Jun 03 $9 −$4 -46%
Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5) Jun 03 $8 +$2 +24%
Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals Jun 03 $17 +$13 +82%
Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals Jun 02 $49 +$1 +3%
Bulls vs. Mavericks: O/U 245.5 Apr 15 $34 −$34 -100%
Nuggets vs. Spurs Apr 15 $75 −$75 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 11.5 BUY Under 75¢ $7 1m
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 11.5 BUY Under 71¢ $36 5m
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 11.5 BUY Under 71¢ $1 6m
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 11.5 BUY Under 71¢ $35 6m
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 11.5 BUY Under 67¢ $34 11m
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 11.5 BUY Under 66¢ $33 14m
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 11.5 BUY Under 63¢ $32 16m
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 11.5 BUY Under 62¢ $3 18m
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 11.5 BUY Under 62¢ $3 18m
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 11.5 BUY Under 62¢ $3 18m
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 11.5 BUY Under 62¢ $4 18m
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 11.5 BUY Under 62¢ $4 18m
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 11.5 BUY Under 62¢ $4 18m
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 11.5 BUY Under 62¢ $4 18m
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 11.5 BUY Under 62¢ $4 18m
Spread: Miami Marlins (-3.5) BUY Miami Marlins 59¢ $27 18m
Spread: Miami Marlins (-3.5) BUY Miami Marlins 59¢ $8 22m
Spread: Miami Marlins (-3.5) BUY Miami Marlins 59¢ $1 22m
Spread: Miami Marlins (-3.5) BUY Miami Marlins 63¢ $9 27m
Spread: Miami Marlins (-3.5) BUY Miami Marlins 63¢ $22 27m
Spread: Miami Marlins (-3.5) BUY Miami Marlins 60¢ $180 37m
Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5) BUY Miami Marlins 63¢ $315 47m
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins BUY Miami Marlins 76¢ $153 59m
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins BUY Miami Marlins 70¢ $79 1h
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins BUY Miami Marlins 70¢ $62 1h
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins BUY San Francisco Giants 35¢ $76 1h
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins BUY San Francisco Giants 35¢ $53 1h
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins BUY Miami Marlins 65¢ $131 1h
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins BUY San Francisco Giants 35¢ $11 1h
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 49¢ $25 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,674.96 · official $3,657.69 (match) · 781 history records