Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T01:19:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
E1 0xe1e4…b4da weather 429 markets active 2h ago coverage 69d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$111 (+1%) realized +$111 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate78%332W / 94L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day8.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$125now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$34
7 days+$52
14 days+$20
30 days−$201
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 99% +$57
crypto 1% −$4
politics 0% +$1
culture 0% +$1
other 0% −$1
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +11.6% +0.9% 94% 59% -0.7%
≤30d 96 +4.0% -5.9% 78% 45% -13.5%
≤90d 426 +0.3% -9.3% 78% 50% -8.9%
all 426 +0.3% -9.3% 78% 50% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 50% -8.9%
10% -18.0% 22% -17.6%
15% -25.9% 8% -25.6%
20% -33.2% 4% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late +8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$14 · ×0.29 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

69d coverage
Net worth$125
Realized+$111
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses332 / 94
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)426 / 429
History coverage69d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day8.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 426 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on June 20? No 73¢ 74¢ $42 $43 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 20? No 90¢ 93¢ $41 $42 +$1 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 24°C on June 20? No 83¢ 80¢ $41 $39 −$2 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 22 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 19? Jun 19 $34 +$4 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on June 19? Jun 19 $33 +$9 +26%
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 19? Jun 19 $34 +$11 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 18? Jun 18 $30 +$2 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 18? Jun 18 $30 +$9 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 92-93°F on June 17? Jun 17 $41 −$38 -91%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 17? Jun 17 $45 +$3 +7%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 16 $32 +$8 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on June 16? Jun 16 $32 +$13 +39%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on June 16? Jun 16 $32 +$8 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 12°C on June 15? Jun 15 $29 +$2 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 15? Jun 15 $29 +$8 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 84-85°F on June 14? Jun 15 $27 +$2 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 9°C on June 14? Jun 15 $27 +$3 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on June 13? Jun 13 $24 +$3 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 76-77°F on June 13? Jun 13 $24 +$3 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $25 +$2 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C on June 12? Jun 12 $21 +$2 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on June 12? Jun 12 $22 +$2 +11%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 12 $22 +$3 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 11? Jun 11 $21 +$3 +13%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 81°F or below on June Jun 11 $19 +$2 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 25°C on June 11? Jun 11 $19 +$2 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 10? Jun 10 $18 +$1 +8%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 71°F or below on June Jun 10 $17 +$2 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on June 10? Jun 10 $17 +$3 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 09 $21 +$3 +13%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 09 $24 +$4 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C on June 9? Jun 09 $24 +$2 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on June 9? Jun 09 $25 −$6 -25%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 9? Jun 09 $23 −$23 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 9? Jun 08 $24 −$1 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 8? Jun 08 $33 +$2 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 23°C on June 8? Jun 08 $34 +$4 +12%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 8? Jun 07 $33 −$33 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 7? Jun 06 $32 −$32 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on June 6? Jun 06 $53 +$9 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 6? Jun 06 $53 +$18 +33%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on June 6? Jun 05 $52 −$52 -99%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 5? Jun 05 $44 +$3 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 5? Jun 05 $44 +$7 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 36°C on June 5? Jun 05 $46 +$14 +31%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 5? Jun 04 $3 −$3 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 4? Jun 04 $58 +$6 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 4? Jun 04 $59 +$15 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on June 4? Jun 04 $58 −$58 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 3? Jun 03 $52 +$7 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on June 3? Jun 03 $52 +$7 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on June 3? Jun 03 $52 +$4 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 2? Jun 02 $47 +$4 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on June 20? BUY No 73¢ $43 1h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 20? BUY No 90¢ $41 2h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 24°C on June 20? BUY No 83¢ $41 2h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $38 2h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $42 2h
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $45 2h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on June 19? BUY No 78¢ $33 25h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 19? BUY No 90¢ $34 25h
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 19? BUY No 75¢ $34 25h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 18? BUY No 76¢ $30 2d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 18? BUY No 94¢ $30 2d
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 92-93°F on June 17? SELL No 8¢ $4 2d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 17? BUY No 93¢ $45 3d
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 92-93°F on June 17? BUY No 83¢ $41 3d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju SELL No 100¢ $40 3d
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $45 3d
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on June 16? BUY No 79¢ $32 4d
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on June 16? BUY No 71¢ $32 4d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju BUY No 80¢ $32 4d
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 12°C on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $31 4d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $38 4d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 15? BUY No 77¢ $29 5d
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 12°C on June 15? BUY No 93¢ $29 5d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 84-85°F on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $29 5d
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 9°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $30 5d
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 9°C on June 14? BUY No 89¢ $27 6d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 84-85°F on June 14? BUY No 92¢ $27 6d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $27 6d
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 76-77°F on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $27 6d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $27 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $124.57 · official $124.57 (match) · 871 history records